The Trump administration is determined to bring manufacturing activity back to the U.S., and tariffs are one of its important tools. The levies should help domestic makers of things, and it has with cars.
With drones, that just hasn't been the case.
In mid-August, President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on certain drones and their components to take effect on Sept. 3, 21 days later.
"We view the move as positive for domestic producers," wrote Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu at the time, noting that AeroVironment, AEVEX, Teledyne Technologies, Redwire, Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, and Elbit Systems could benefit.
Investors clearly feel differently. Since the announcement, those six stocks are down an average of 20%.
The devil is in the details. For starters, it isn't the first drone policy. Many Chinese drones are already banned. What's more, some of the new tariffs go into effect after 180 days. And some countries face only a 15% tariff. The order isn't the panacea investors needed, and not enough to overcome Iran war fears.
Defense and drone stocks have been weak since fighting broke out in Iran. Capital Alpha Partners analyst Byron Callan points out that a split Congress after the midterm elections could create funding gridlock, so investors are avoiding the sector until the election outcome is known.
Eventually, tariffs can help drone stocks. They have certainly helped the U.S. car market. A 100% tariff on Chinese vehicles has helped the U.S. avoid the disaster that has become the Chinese car market. Overproduction, competition, slowing demand growth, and dwindling government support for EVs have hurt profitability, leading Chinese auto makers to export cars (and their problems).
Shares of Chinese EV leader BYD are down 23% year over year. Volkswagen shares are off 25%. Ford Motor and General Motors stocks have felt none of the pain. Shares are up 22% and 49% year over year, respectively.
When some of the fears fade, investors can look at the drone stocks Wall Street likes. Of the six listed, 87% of analysts covering AeroVironment rate shares Buy. The average Buy-rating ratio for S&P 500 stocks typically ranges from 55% to 60%. The other two with high Buy-rating ratios are Kratos and AEVEX.
Those are three ideas for when fears fade and investors consider the longer-term implications of bringing production back into the U.S.
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