Fed Rate Hike in September Seen as Tight Call, Caution on Duration Justified
Dow Jones14:01
0601 GMT - A Federal Reserve interest-rate hike in September is a tight call, keeping Generali Asset Management cautious on bond duration, says Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research, in a note. "On policy rates, our tight call is one Fed hike after the mid-terms: a stickier July core PCE and [Fed Chairman Kevin] Warsh's hawkish tone at Jackson Hole tilt the risks to an earlier move," Hempell says. Money markets currently price in a 65% probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting, according to LSEG. Generali Asset Management remains cautious on duration and expect long yields to stay rangebound, with risks still skewed higher in the U.S.
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