Review & Preview: September Blues

Dow Jones07:55

Feeling the Chill. It's a new month, and suddenly investors have fresh worries about old problems like interest rates, the bond market, and the Iran War.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.8% while the S&P 500 fell 0.7% and the Nasdaq Composite closed 1% lower.

Bond prices fell on Tuesday, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level seen in Trump's second term. That caused pain for sectors like tech that are trading richly thanks to their expected future growth.

"[H]igher yields are proving to be the stock market's undoing. They force analysts to discount higher earnings more aggressively, thus forcing p/e multiples downward," writes Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie Group.

Small caps were also feeling the pinch as the likelihood of an interest rate hike increases. Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's remarks late last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, were seen as largely hawkish, and oil prices jumped today on after two oil supertankers were struck passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Russell 2000 tumbled 1.23%, while the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR exchange-traded fund ended 1.3% higher.

"As long as oil prices are high and America is dependent on oil, this will have a cascading effect on inflation," notes Edward Rosenberg, head of ETFs at Strategy Shares.

No wonder some investors are getting cold feet.

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The Hot Stock: Moderna +9.9% The Biggest Loser: Axon Enterprise -8.5%

Best Sector: Energy +1.5% Worst Sector: Consumer Discretionary -1.9%

Broadcom Bump?

Another week, another chip giant is up to bat.

Just days after Nvidia reported earnings, rival Broadcom will do the same on Wednesday. Given the Nasdaq's difficult start to November, the news could provide a much-needed boost to the tech sector.

However, the bar is high: Nvidia is projecting 70% top-line growth next year, so investors will be expecting similar bullishness from Broadcom.

"Nvidia proved the AI party isn't over. Now Broadcom has to prove it's getting a bigger invitation," writes Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. "Will they keep raising the bar?...investors will want another strong outlook showing that AI growth carries into fiscal 2027 while margins remain healthy."

Yet perhaps the bigger question is whether or not the market will even care. Despite its huge weighting in the S&P 500, Nvidia's earnings barely moved stocks last week.

The Calendar

Broadcom, Brown-Forman, C3.Ai, Five Below, Gold.com, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NetApp, Phreesia, PVH, and Snowflake release earnings tomorrow.

ADP releases its National Employment Report for August. Consensus estimate is for an increase of 45,000 in private-sector employment, roughly even with the July data.

-Dan Lam

What We're Reading Today

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Op-Ed: We Are Entering a Sovereign-Debt Purgatory. Will Anyone Care?

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