The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0315 GMT - The Singapore dollar weakens slightly against its U.S. counterpart on a likely technical correction after touching a nearly four-month high late last week. "Into Monday, thin U.S. holiday liquidity and renewed geopolitical tensions may result in choppier price action," OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong says. However, "unless the USD finds a fresh leg higher, upside in USDSGD may remain restrained," the FX strategist adds. The U.S. dollar is 0.1% higher at 1.2677 Singapore dollars; the greenback touched S$1.2655 last Thursday, the lowest intraday level since May 11, and fell as low as S$1.2656 last Friday, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0229 GMT - Bitcoin consolidates in Asia and is last at $79,934.60. U.S. payrolls increased well above expectations in August, raising expectations of a Fed rate hike later this month. Higher borrowing rates tend to weigh on risk appetite, dragging cryptocurrencies. The market continues to face risks including geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, says Antonio Di Giacomo at XS.com. A renewed escalation could push energy prices higher, raising inflation concerns and triggering further moves in bond yields and interest-rate expectations. "Such a scenario could generate additional volatility in bitcoin and, particularly, in altcoins, which tend to experience considerably larger percentage swings during periods of uncertainty," he says. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0139 GMT - The yen strengthens slightly against other currencies on the prospects of a swifter pace of BOJ rate hikes. "Markets [have] increasingly priced a faster pace of BOJ policy normalisation," OCBC Group Research's Christopher Wong says in a research report. BOJ Takata's recent comments that policy should respond "more nimbly on a meeting-by-meeting basis have prompted markets to consider whether subsequent tightening could come more quickly than the roughly semi-annual pace previously assumed," the FX strategist says. Markets also "price a high probability of a September BoJ hike," Wong adds. The U.S. dollar edges 0.1% lower to 156.07 yen and the Australian dollar is down 0.1% at 112.41 yen, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0016 GMT - JGBs edge lower in price terms amid rising oil prices that typically lead to higher inflation in Japan, which could spur a quicker pace of BOJ rate increases. "The key question is whether markets bring forward the BoJ rate-hike path further or continue to unwind recent repricing," two members of J.P. Morgan's Japan Markets Research say in a recent research report. "While a September hike still appears likely, the main focus is how USD/JPY developments shape the pricing of the BoJ rate-hike path," they add. The ten-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bp at 2.910%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0014 GMT - Japanese stocks are higher in early trade amid continued hopes for artificial intelligence-related demand and signs of U.S. economic strength. Chip-related stocks are leading the gains. SoftBank Group is up 6.2%, Tokyo Electron Ltd. is up 4.5% and Lasertec is 7.1% higher. The dollar is at 156.12 yen, compared with Y156.18 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching crude oil prices and bond yields as well as developments in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average is up 1.8% at 66167.70. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
0009 GMT - Australia's inflation rate is too high and growth is too strong. As a result, the disinflationary impulse in the economy isn't strong enough to believe the Reserve Bank of Australia is on track to achieve its forecast of core inflation falling to 2.5% by early 2028, says Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, Australia. The RBA will likely need to lift the official cash rate further, with a 25 basis point hike likely later this month. They may have to deliver another 25 basis point hike in 4Q 2026, he adds. Recent RBA commentary suggests they have become more impatient, he adds.(james.glynn@wsj.com; Twitter @JamesGlynnWSJ)
0006 GMT - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar, but may be weighed by Fed rate-hike prospects. The U.S. Dollar Index could "test resistance at 99.40 late in the week if market pricing for a September rate hike from the Fed increases as we expect," CBA's Global Economic & Markets Research team says in a research report. U.S. August CPI data, due this Friday, is a "crucial input" into the Fed's September decision," the team says. "Market pricing for a September hike is currently a coin toss near 50%," the team adds. The U.S. Dollar Index is little changed at 99.151; the dollar is 0.2% higher at 1,346.50 won and is steady at 1.2670 Singapore dollars. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2342 GMT - Japanese stocks may rise on continued hopes for artificial intelligence-related demand and signs of U.S. economic strength following the stronger-than-expected jobs data on Friday. Nikkei futures are up 1.5% at 65940 on the SGX. The dollar is at 156.14 yen, compared with Y156.18 as of Friday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on crude oil prices and bond yields as well as developments in the Middle East. The Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.3% to 65020.94 on Friday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
2301 GMT - This week's focus will be back on the Reserve Bank of Australia, with two senior staff speaking. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter are likely to comment on recent strong inflation and GDP growth data. Financial markets have priced in 1.5 interest-rate hikes before the end of the year so their level of hawkishness will be scrutinized. The most recent chatter from RBA staff has been full of warnings about inflation risks and the potential for a fourth interest-rate hike this year. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
2246 GMT - Forsyth Barr says confidence in its earnings estimates for cinema software company Vista has risen. In the U.S., August box office revenue was its strongest on record for that month. That means year-to-date box office revenue is currently ahead of the growth embedded within Vista FY26 revenue guidance, analyst James Lindsay says. "Vista is also benefiting from recent contract wins and an FX backdrop that remains more favorable than assumed in its original FY26 guidance," Forsyth Barr adds. Still, it keeps forecasts unchanged near the midpoint of Vista's guidance. That decision reflects uncertainty around the full-year box office outcome and a release slate heavily weighted to December over the remaining four months of 2026. Forsyth Barr retains an outperform call and NZ$3.43/share price target on Vista, which is down 3.3% at NZ$2.64 today.
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