The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1256 ET - Since the start of the month, more money has been flowing into altcoins--cryptocurrencies outside of bitcoin, which typically commands most of the market capitalization for overall cryptocurrency trading. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the market cap for altcoins is around $1.11T, and CoinMarketCap's "Altcoin Season Index" is currently at 47 out of 100, up big from a score of 32 seen at the start of September. According to CoinMarketCap, "altcoin season" is considered when 75% of the top 100 cryptocurrencies outperform bitcoin over the course of 90 days. Bitcoin is down 0.8%, while ethereum falls 0.2%, XRP is up 2.3%, solana falls 0.4%, and HYPE is off 1.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1247 ET - Heading into the holiday-shortened week, bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.01B posted in the prior three trading days, according to data from CoinGlass. That includes a net inflow of $730.8M posted on Sept. 3. The influx comes as analysts speculate that investors may be changing they way they think about rates. "If investors continue buying while short-term yields remain elevated, [we say] it would indicate the policy rate is no longer the binding constraint on bitcoin," say analysts with Bitfinex in a note. Bitcoin is down 0.9% to $78,523, while ethereum falls 0.4% to $2,485 and XRP rises 1.1% to $1.41. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1222 ET - Canada PM Mark Carney borrows a famous catchphrase from former European central banker Mario Draghi on his focus in navigating the Canadian economy through heightened trade tensions with the U.S. "We will do whatever it takes for as long as it takes" to help Canadian workers and firms in crossfire of tariffs and retaliatory tariffs between the neighboring countries, says Carney in a YouTube address. Carney is the former governor at both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, and like Draghi is a Goldman Sachs alumnus. Draghi is credited with turning around the euro-debt crisis last decade when proclaimed the ECB would do "whatever it takes." (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1118 ET - New issue premiums on euro-denominated credit have been rising slowly in recent weeks, reflecting elevated volatility in global markets, Societe Generale's Juan Valencia says in a note. Euro credit supply has remained strong in 2026, surpassing the supply at the same period last year by around 7.4%, he says. Although the rising new issue premiums don't signal investors becoming more wary about pricing of new issues, the trend is worth monitoring, Valencia says. "[The rise] is worth following as an ongoing rise in new issue premiums would eventually translate into an overall repricing of the credit complex." (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1111 ET - Home sales slipped 0.6% year-over-year in August and fell sharply from July, Zillow says. Mortgage rates holding above 6.5% kept many buyers on the sidelines. Newly pending listings, a forward-looking measure of demand, fell 2.6% from a year ago, a sign that the slowdown could continue through the remainder of the year. The typical U.S. home value rose 1.3% from a year ago to $369,678, and the monthly mortgage payment on the typical home was 2% higher than last year, Zillow says. Inventory continues to offer a modest bright spot, with 1.41 million homes for sale nationwide, up 3% from a year ago. Homes took a median of 27 days to go pending in August. That's the same as last year and two days longer than July, according to Zillow.(chris.wack@wsj.com)
1052 ET - Privacy coin Zcash set a new all-time high over the long weekend, climbing to $1,246 Sunday. The crypto token has since pared those gains, and is now trading around $1,165. Enthusiasm around Zcash is centered on its "zero-knowledge cryptography," which hides both transacting addresses and the amount being transferred, and could serve to mitigate the power of AI to de-anonymize user addresses on older blockchains like bitcoin. "We expect AI to create new threats to financial privacy, and to motivate a search for new solutions," says Zach Pandl of Grayscale in a recent note. Major cryptocurrencies are mixed, with bitcoin down 1.2% to $78,313, ethereum off 0.7% to $2,477, XRP up 0.6% to $1.41, and solana down 1.1% to $102.96. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1038 ET - Gold futures are lower with the market watching a rise in oil prices and for U.S. inflation data later this week. "The main challenge facing gold at present is the interaction between two opposing forces," Rania Gule of XS.com says in a note. "The first is geopolitical risk, which supports demand for gold as one of the world's most important safe-haven assets. The second is the growing possibility that U.S. monetary policy will remain restrictive, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold." Gold for December delivery is off 0.8% in New York at $4,440.60 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.2% at $66.59 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1028 ET - The Bank of England is set to keep its policy rate on hold at 3.75% next week, with guidance unchanged amid a growing schism between policymakers who want to act and those that prefer to 'wait-and-see', BNP Paribas's Dani Stoilova and Katherine Yoon say in a note. They now believe the BOE will hike in November, rather than September, coming after Andy Burnham's first budget and alongside refreshed macroeconomic projections. "The U.K economy has shown remarkable resilience, and the energy-price shock has been sufficiently persistent for second-round effects to build over time and justify a rate hike," the economists say. But that will mark a single "insurance" hike, given policymakers' recent argument that additional tightening needn't start a new hiking cycle. (edward.frankl@wsj.com)
1014 ET - The Bank of England's gilt sales program, also referred to as quantitative tightening, could keep gilt yields elevated over the long term, Capital Economics Paul Dales says in a note. Quantitative tightening is the process through which the BOE reduces its gilts holdings purchased during previous periods of quantitative easing. "Although QT is making the public finances less sensitive to future rises in interest rates and bond yields, this is coming at the cost of structurally higher term premia and gilt yields," he says. Capital Economics expects the BOE to slow the pace of QT to around 50 billion pounds ($67.7 billion) during the year from October, from 70 billion pounds currently. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
1004 ET - Risk appetite across markets is being tested as Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia boost crude oil prices and challenge hopes that the conflict can end soon. Instead, the continued fighting and the implementation of new tariffs on U.S. goods by Canada has investors paring back exposure to risk and volatility in assets like bitcoin. How long the risk-paring trade dominates may be linked to expectations around a potential rate hike next week from the Federal Reserve. Bitcoin falls 1.1% to $78,337, ethereum slides 1% to $2,472, and XRP is slightly up 0.1% to $1.40. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0929 ET - Additional European Central Bank rate hikes following an expected increase this week would mean a deliberate move into restrictive territory, Vontobel's Gregor Kapferer says in a note. A deposit rate of 2.50%, where markets expect it to sit following a 25 basis-point hike on Thursday, is generally viewed as the upper limit of a neutral range, Kapferer says. Further hikes to combat the energy-supply shock, over which monetary policy has no influence, would therefore mean policy was having a restrictive impact on the economy, Kapferer says. "Our baseline scenario therefore remains that there will be no further rate hikes [beyond September], barring a renewed acceleration in core inflation or wage inflation," the head of developed markets debt says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)
0912 ET - A quarter-point rate hike by the European Central Bank on Thursday is considered virtually certain, Aberdeen Investments' Felix Feather says in a note. "Crucial for the markets will be whether the central bank frames this increase as the next step in a prolonged tightening cycle or keeps all monetary policy options open," the economist says. The ECB is likely to adopt a hawkish tone as economic activity in the eurozone has proven more robust than the central bank anticipated, he says. At the same time, high energy prices, indicators pointing to stronger future wage growth and a slight rise in market-based inflation expectations are likely to keep policymakers focused on upside risks. Aberdeen expects the ECB to raise its growth forecasts.
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