The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1101 ET - Weather is creating two different situations for U.S. crops this week. In the Midwest, a cold front is swooping through and providing relief, says the USDA in its latest daily weather report. "Rain is benefiting any immature summer crops," the USDA says. Meanwhile, temperatures in the Plains remain "scorching" across the southeastern portion of the region, impacting immature summer crops as well as pastures and livestock health. CBOT grain futures are mixed, with most-active corn down 0.4%, soybeans up 0.2%, and wheat rising 1.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1038 ET - Gold futures are lower with the market watching a rise in oil prices and for U.S. inflation data later this week. "The main challenge facing gold at present is the interaction between two opposing forces," Rania Gule of XS.com says in a note. "The first is geopolitical risk, which supports demand for gold as one of the world's most important safe-haven assets. The second is the growing possibility that U.S. monetary policy will remain restrictive, increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset such as gold." Gold for December delivery is off 0.8% in New York at $4,440.60 a troy ounce. Silver is down 0.2% at $66.59 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1028 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME are up 2.5% to over 74 cents a pound after cutout prices and futures both sank amid questions about pork demand at the end of last week. "Lean hog futures traded lower from the jump Friday morning following that sharply lower belly and cutout print," says StoneX in a note. But slaughter figures fell over the weekend, and CFTC data showed a smaller net short in hogs among fund traders. Cattle is also higher, with that most-active contract climbing 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1019 ET - The next WASDE report is due Friday and is expected to contain new estimates regarding output from American farms. This follows a summer that has been nice in some parts, but also tough in terms of hot and dry weather along with little precipitation to replenish soil moistures in many places. The extent of stress-related damage has been a factor kicking CBOT grain futures back up to recent multi-year highs. The complex is mixed, with corn down 0.1%, soybeans flat, and wheat up 1.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1011 ET - Bank of America lifts its oil price estimates as strikes resume in the Persian Gulf, threatening further supply disruptions. "Renewed military tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including attacks on oil tankers, have kept uncertainty and volatility elevated," analysts at BofA Global Research say in a note. They see Brent crude averaging $83 a barrel in the second half of this year and $75 a barrel in 2027. Previously they expected Brent in a $70-$80 range in 2H26 and to average $70 in 2027.They still expect a gradual normalization of Strait of Hormuz flows, but "if skirmishes curbing oil flows continue into year-end, Brent could trade in a $95-$120/barrel range." (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0944 ET - Prediction market and exchange Kalshi says the volume of commodities-related contracts traded over the past seven months hit $400 million. That's more than four times the volume that the exchange's crypto offerings had at the same point in their lifecycle, the company says. Kalshi's commodities prediction markets include gold, silver, copper, WTI crude oil, Brent crude, gasoline, and natural gas. The exponential growth means a few things, a spokeswoman for the company says. "This trend highlights not only the huge demand for commodities prediction markets, but also the compounding power of Kalshi's platform," the spokeswoman says. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0924 ET - U.S. natural gas futures are slightly lower as traders return from the Labor Day holiday and look toward the gradual loss of cooling demand. "The summer will transition rapidly into fall," Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics says in a note. Even meteorologists estimating cooling demand gains over the holiday weekend acknowledge cooler weather in the 11-15 day window, he adds. The regional breakdown for late September weather is "mildly supportive" for gas prices with late-season cooling demand in the South Central region and early heating demand in the upper Midwest and New England, he adds. Nymex natural gas is off 0.4% at $2.963/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0919 ET - U.S. farmers are in the crosshairs of the retaliatory tariffs enacted by Canada starting today. Not only is U.S. dairy products like cheese and whey slapped with new tariffs, but farm equipment is as well--including some mowers and other harvesting equipment. For U.S. farmers already struggling with high input costs, Canada's latest move will make input costs that much more onerous. "U.S. agriculture faces weaker sales, demands for discounts and potential substitution toward Canadian or other foreign suppliers," says Jim Wiesemeyer of Ag Bull Trading. "For affected producers, the larger risk is that a prolonged dispute turns temporary order reductions into lasting losses of Canadian customers." CBOT grain futures are mixed premarket. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0853 ET - Oil futures start the U.S. trading week higher and Brent flirts with the $100 level as Iran-backed Houthis launched attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure. "A bullish trading stance still appears warranted, at least until some indication of renewed negotiations is forthcoming," Ritterbusch & Associates says in a note. The increase in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is "likely precluding another visit in Brent to the $120 level seen early in the war," the firm says, although renewed attacks in the strait remain a risk. WTI is up 2.1% at $93.40 a barrel and Brent is 1.4% higher at $98.33. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0619 ET - Palm oil prices inched lower, reversing earlier gains on expectations for a weaker export pace, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. However, continuing dry weather, which might hurt yield in the medium term, is seen as supporting the market, he adds. Ng expects palm oil to face resistance at 5,050 ringgit a ton and find support at 4,900 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 1 ringgit lower at 4,977 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0435 ET - Gold prices fall despite a weaker dollar, with investors now awaiting U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. In midmorning European trading, New York futures are down 0.8% to $4,440.10 a troy ounce. "Gold holding above the $4,400-area suggests defensive demand is still strong enough to offset the pressure from a resilient labour market," says Zaye Capital Markets' Naeem Aslam. "The market is balancing two competing forces: stronger U.S. economic data that supports higher interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty that continues to attract safe-haven demand." Focus now shifts to U.S. PPI and CPI data due later this week. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0429 ET - Copper is becoming increasingly important to the energy transition, given its key role in power grids, electric vehicles, renewable generation and energy storage, Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen writes in a note. Benchmark LME copper futures hit a record $14,624.50 a metric ton, supported by persistent market tightness as miners struggle to keep pace with robust demand ahead of China's annual peak-demand season, he says. Copper is also difficult to substitute at scale, with alternatives such as aluminum involving trade-offs in conductivity, efficiency, weight and reliability, Hansen says. This should keep demand relatively resilient as electrification accelerates, while long lead times and technical challenges in developing new mines constrain the market's ability to respond quickly to stronger consumption, he adds.
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