The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2014 ET - Japanese stocks are lower in early trade on rising concerns over the Iran war and higher energy costs. Construction and retail stocks are leading the declines. Taisei is down 4.9% and Ryohin Keikaku is 2.4% lower. The dollar is at 153.49 yen, compared with Y153.15 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are closely watching developments in the Middle East and oil prices after Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The Nikkei Stock Average is down 0.6% at 64759.80. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)
2002 ET - The yen consolidates against the dollar and other currencies ahead of BOJ policy board member Kazuyuki Masu's speech due later today. Masu is scheduled to meet with local leaders in Fukui, Japan. "Market participants will closely watch whether Masu validates the market's recent sharp upward reassessment of the BoJ's policy outlook," CBA's Carol Kong says in a research report. "We now expect the BoJ to raise its policy interest rate by 25bp next week," the economist and currency strategy adds. The U.S. dollar is little changed at 153.54 yen while the Australian dollar edges 0.1% lower to Y110.83, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1945 ET - Japanese stocks may fall as fears about the Iran war and higher energy costs grow. Nikkei futures are down 1.2% at 64355 on the SGX. The dollar is at 153.37 yen, compared with Y153.15 as of Wednesday's Tokyo stock market close. Investors are focusing on developments in the Middle East and oil prices after Brent crude topped $100 a barrel for the first time since July. The Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.2% to 65142.78 on Wednesday. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com)
1939 ET - The Australian dollar briefly touched 72.38 U.S. cents in recent hours, its highest level since the middle of May. The currency is being supported by the prospect of additional tightening by the Reserve Bank of Australia and a broadly weaker U.S. dollar, says Carol Kong, an FX strategist at CBA. The next resistance can be found at 72.78 US cents, she adds. Markets interpreted RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's comments on Tuesday about inflation risks as tilting toward another imminent hike, with a rise in the official cash rate on September 28 now 70% priced in, Kong says. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1820 ET - Metcash's latest trading snapshot looks mixed to Jefferies. Sales were solid, up 2.8% in the first 18 weeks of FY27 when tobacco is excluded. Analyst Michael Simotas is pleased with the performance of Total Tools and Hardware, given a challenging housing market. Still, the headwind to profit margins in food was disappointing. "Food is rarely smooth sailing for Metcash," Jefferies says. "But we expect continued sales improvement from food inflation, Aldi's strategic pivot and reducing tobacco headwind." Jefferies retains a buy call on Metcash, noting it's doing better than its price-to-earnings multiple of 12x suggests. Its price target eases 2.9% to A$3.40/share, but stays above Metcash's closing price of A$2.87 on Wednesday. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)
1734 ET - Mexico's 2027 federal government budget proposal includes transfers of around $4.5 billion to Pemex for debt payments, which puts off plans for the state oil company to be financially self-sufficient by next year. "The lower budget support is an improvement over 2026, but doesn't break the financial link to the sovereign or show that Pemex can finance its operations, investment and financial obligations by itself," analysts at Banamex say in a note. The budget plan sees production of liquid hydrocarbons unchanged from 2026 at 1.8 million barrels a day, while crude oil exports are expected to fall to 426,600 b/d from 522,400 b/d this year. Mexico's average crude price is seen at $61.80 a barrel, down from an estimated $78.40 a barrel for 2026.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1653 ET - The Mexican government's 2027 budget proposal makes "realistic assumptions" about growth and public finances while capturing "the limits of fiscal consolidation amidst a low-growth environment," Barclays analysts say in a note. The Finance Ministry assumes GDP growth of 2% next year, up from 1.5% in 2026. The public sector deficit is expected to narrow to 3.9% of GDP from 4.1% this year. Public sector debt is projected to rise to 55% of GDP from 54% at the end of 2026. "Mexico is likely to keep its investment grade status in the coming years given the Mexican economy is now growing above 1%--one of the rating agency warning thresholds--and is projected to do so (even more) in the next few years," Barclays says. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1558 ET - Investors still sold U.S. bonds, sending U.S. yields higher despite the Treasury's announcement of a $6 billion buyback for Treasury's maturing in 10 to 20 years. Investors will now focus their attention on inflation data from the Labor Department: first, the Producer Price Index report on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index report Friday. Brent oil crossed above $100-a-barrel for the first time since July after the latest round of strikes in the Middle East. The 10-year yield rose 0.030 percentage point to 4.84%, and the 2-year yield rose 0.030 to 4.42%. The 30-year yield rose 0.021 percentage point to 5.285%. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1554 ET - The 10-year yield approached 4.85%, its highest level since 2023, after the Treasury announced it was buying back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt. "Some investors had bet on a much bigger shock-and-awe announcement of $10bn or even more," says Evercore ISI's Krishna Guha in a note. He says he takes some reassurance from Secretary Bessent's decision, because "going really big would have been a mistake." Guha believes the move suggests Bessent accepts a limited role for buybacks in creating some uncertainty for shorts while potentially opposing overshooting but recognizes "that the US cannot durably prevent fundamentals from dictating yields and the scale of buybacks required to try would create more problems than it he solves." He adds that staying in more limited territory avoids more turbulence for Fed chair Warsh at next week's FOMC. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1444 ET - Gold futures make small gains despite a rise in Treasury yields after the Treasury Department said it would buy back $6 billion in bonds this week, less than some in the market expected. The dollar weakened, however, which tends to support gold. An easing in Japanese yields and continued central bank buying--with China's central bank adding 20 tons in August--also helped support prices, while the market remains focused on U.S. inflation data later this week, Konstantinos Chrysikos of Kudo.com says in a note. Front month gold settles up 0.5% in New York at $4,416 a troy ounce. Silver gains 2.5% to $67.942 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1401 ET - The direct cost to Canada from President Trump's latest tariff adjustment and import ban is a proverbial drop in the bucket, says economist Tu Nguyen of RSM Canada. "The indirect economic impact is more serious," she warns. Until recently, Canada's economy has struggled under the weight of trade-policy uncertainty stemming from Trump's expanded use of tariffs. Talks toward a US-Canada trade pact collapsed, igniting a tit-for-tat tariff conflict. "Uncertainty remains the elephant in the room," Nguyen says. Firms can account for tariffs, "but they cannot plan for rules that seem to change on a near-constant basis." She adds that Canada PM Mark Carney's recent remarks have a somber tone, suggesting turbulence ahead for households and firms. (Paul.Vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)
1343 ET - A memecoin launched by Hunter Biden, called Hunter Biden's Laptop ($LAPTOP) initially jumped 200% in the first few minutes of its debut. It has since shed 98% of its value, and currently trades at $1.81 with a fully-diluted market cap around $1.76B, according to data from Coinbase via its Base app, which is where the coin was launched, according to WSJ. The coin debuted at 8 a.m, and was down 95% by 9 a.m., according to data from Base.
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