标准版缺席、Pro版涨价 2000美元iPhone或改变苹果投资逻辑

中国经营报09-10

9月10日凌晨，苹果公司“Surprise and Shine”发布会上，苹果新任CEO约翰·特努斯（John Ternus）迎来首秀。与此同时，新一代iPhone产品线正式亮相。　　与市场此前爆料的一样，苹果此次并未发布常规的标准版iPhone 18，而是集中火力推出iPhone 18 Pro、iPhone 18 Pro Max以及首款折叠屏机型iPhone Duo。可选择机型大幅收窄，高端定位...

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standard version and the $2,000 price increase of the Pro version may change Apple's investment logic.","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1da72f33221e1239345a465154a74a7c","symbols_score_info":{"VGT":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"IOSX":0.6,"IXN":0.6,"TTXU":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"JGRO":0.6,"VT":0.6,"METV":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"ROM":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPL":1.98,"AAPE":0.6,"MACW.SI":0.6,"FTEC":0.6,"ABFL":0.6,"XLK":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"APLY":0.6,"AAPB":0.6,"SAAPLmain":0.6,"SPTE":0.6,"TYLG":0.6},"content_text":"9月10日凌晨，苹果公司“Surprise and Shine”发布会上，苹果新任CEO约翰·特努斯（John Ternus）迎来首秀。与此同时，新一代iPhone产品线正式亮相。　　与市场此前爆料的一样，苹果此次并未发布常规的标准版iPhone 18，而是集中火力推出iPhone 18 Pro、iPhone 18 Pro Max以及首款折叠屏机型iPhone Duo。可选择机型大幅收窄，高端定位意图明显。　　根据此前消息，标准版iPhone 18预计将在2027年春季推出，与此同时，iPhone 18e、第二代iPhone Air等产品也可能在这一时间窗口进入市场。　　而据发布会信息，iPhone 18 Pro起售价1199美元（256GB版本），Pro Max起售价1299美元（256GB版本），而折叠屏iPhone Duo起售价直接定在1999美元（256GB版本）。　　据苹果中国官网同步公布的国行售价，iPhone 18 Pro起售价人民币9999元（256GB版本）；iPhone 18 Pro Max起售价10999元（256GB版本）。折叠屏iPhone Duo起售价则高达15999元（256GB版本），512GB为17999元，1TB为21499元，2TB顶配达到26499元。　　折叠屏iPhone Duo是苹果有史以来价格最高的iPhone机型之一。标准版iPhone 18被推迟至2027年上半年推出，短期内消费者若想升级，只能在Pro系列或1.6万元起的Duo之间选择。　　从资本市场角度看，Seeking Alpha分析师Agar Capital认为，2000美元级别iPhone的出现可能改变苹果的投资逻辑。iPhone 18 Pro、Pro Max及售价1999美元的iPhone Duo，让苹果进一步切入超高阶市场。更高的售价可能显著推升iPhone营收，并有助于抵销零组件成本上涨。　　“iPhone Duo作为折叠屏新品，被视为本次发布会的最大变量。即便初期销量仅为中等水平，其超高客单价也能贡献可观的新增收入。”Agar Capital表示。　　苹果发布会后，Counterpoint高级分析师林科宇对《中国经营报》记者表示：苹果此次发布会带来了市场此前预期的产品，包括iPhone Pro系列以及备受关注的折叠屏手机iPhone Duo。“我们看到了‘补短板’和小幅提升的Pro系列，也看到了万众期待的折叠屏手机iPhone Duo。Pro系列本身的亮点相对有限，这当然也是目前整个智能手机品类面临的一个瓶颈。”　　在林科宇看来，苹果后续仍会持续夯实其在高端市场的地位，进入折叠屏市场，则有望进一步带动折叠屏品类的市场需求和市场容量。　　从产品本身来看，iPhone Duo也承担着苹果拓展超高端市场的任务。林科宇表示，iPhone Duo采用了相对成熟的UTG（超薄玻璃）和铰链等方案，因此整体产品完成度较高。不过，由于产品定价较高，同时仅支持eSIM，其整体销量仍会存在一定上限。　　除长期的高端化战略外，苹果此次调整产品价格或也面临现实的成本压力，此次iPhone 18 Pro和Pro Max起售价均较上一代提高100美元，分别达到1199美元和1299美元；与此同时，两款产品均提供最高2TB存储版本，部分高存储版本价格涨幅更高。　　随着AI数据中心建设带动存储需求增长，内存供应受到挤压，苹果及其他消费电子厂商面临更高的存储成本压力。从这一角度来看，苹果此次强化高端产品布局可能存在多重考量，既体现其提升ASP（平均售价）的长期策略，也面临存储等零部件成本上涨带来的短期压力。　　林科宇亦认同，iPhone 18 Pro和Pro Max售价相较于上一代提升也是为了应对存储及其他零部件成本上涨带来的短期压力。但在林科宇看来，iPhone标准版缺席，苹果集中火力推出Pro、 Pro Max以及折叠屏这样的“排兵布阵”，主要还是因为按照过去的发布节奏，苹果整体销售会更加依赖第四季度。如果把基础版放到明年第一季度，那么一季度和二季度的销售节奏也会相对更加均衡一些。　　对利润端，林科宇认为，无论如何调整产品发布节奏，都可能受到一定影响。“毕竟在当前成本上升的环境下，这其实也是整个行业都很难避免的问题。”　　谈及智能手机市场均价上涨，市场研究机构IDC副总裁王吉平告诉记者，IDC预计2026年全球智能手机平均售价将飙升至581美元，同比暴涨27.6%，创下行业有史以来最大年度涨幅，较2025年的455美元大幅跃升。　　王吉平指出：“ASP的急剧攀升并非需求拉动，而是成本驱动的被动涨价。这一现象在2027年将进一步加剧，预计ASP将达到622美元的峰值，较2025年累计上涨近37%。此后随着存储产能逐步释放和供应链修复，ASP将从2028年起进入温和回调通道，预计2030年回落至597美元，但仍显著高于2025年水平。”（文章来源：中国经营报）","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"productRelease","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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