An Evercore ISI analyst thinks investors are getting exposure to IBM's various quantum-computing initiatives essentially for free
Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani wrote in a note that IBM has the potential to generate "multibillion-dollar revenue" from its quantum business long term.
There has been a "high degree of negativity and skepticism" surrounding International Business Machines in recent months, but one analyst just crunched the numbers and deemed the stock a compelling buy.
To start, shares of IBM (IBM) have underperformed this year, falling 19% so far in 2026 as the S&P 500 SPX has gained 13%. The stock's struggles have a lot to do with a preliminary earnings release from July that warned of weaker-than-expected financial results and pressure on areas like its mainframe program.
While Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani called the preliminary release a "disappointment," he laid out a case for owning the stock based on a sum-of-the-parts analysis that looks at what different business units may be worth. In his view, the company owns a set of "extremely attractive assets" and can capitalize as artificial intelligence increasingly gets deployed.
Daryanani's analysis of the potential for IBM's software, consulting and infrastructure businesses will mean an equity value of $281, he wrote. In this scenario, investors are essentially getting a "free call option" on IBM's quantum undertakings, which include a new quantum fabrication plant and the development of a fault-tolerant quantum computer - a type of computer that can function even in the presence of errors. The $281 equity value is above the $231 level where shares currently trade, and above Daryanani's $250 target price.
He said that the company has potential for "multibillion-dollar revenue" from its quantum business long term, with use cases ranging from aerospace to bond-trading applications.
IBM has said its goal is to build a fault-tolerant quantum computer by the end of the decade. In May, the Department of Commerce announced it will support IBM with a $1 billion award, which will go toward a new quantum foundry called Anderon.
However, Daryanani emphasized the importance of continued momentum in the company's software business, which represents roughly 45% of revenue.
Susquehanna analyst James Friedman told MarketWatch that he's "constructive" on IBM's road map for its quantum business, and he sees a number of catalysts ahead for the stock such as the Quantum World Congress later this month.
He wrote in a recent note that he's waiting for IBM's other segments to play out, with one big factor being the timing of spending on mainframe-related offerings.
IBM's mainframe customers lease their equipment on three-year contracts, and he wrote that many customers have been postponing spending on IBM's transaction processing software - a type of data-management software - until their workloads scale on their upgraded hardware.
He explained that transaction processing, being the largest component of the company's software business, is critical for IBM, but spending on that segment has been "crowded out" as customers are reallocating spending toward hardware, which is in short supply. That said, he believes that software revenue could be deferred, not lost, given the long-term nature of the contracts.
Shares of IBM were down 1% on Tuesday.
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-Hannah Pedone
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