US core CPI tops forecasts, bolstering case for rate hike

Jeffrey Sparshott / Bloomberg09-11

A key gauge of US consumer prices rose by more than expected last month, bolstering the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to raise interest rates next week.(Sept 11): A key gauge of US consumer...

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A key gauge of US consumer prices rose by more than expected last month, bolstering the case for Federal Reserve (Fed) officials to raise interest rates next week.\nThe consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, climbed 0.3% in August from a month earlier, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data out Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, it advanced 2.4%.\nFutures showed investors priced in a rate hike next week as a near certainty following the release, and put a high likelihood on a second increase before the end of the year.\nThe report suggests inflation made little progress towards the Fed's goal last month amid ongoing pressures from the Iran war, tariffs and the data centre buildout. The US central bank will likely see the numbers as tipping the scale in favour of the first rate increase in three years after some officials suggested the Sept 15-16 decision could come down to what the figures showed.\n\"The renewed march higher in oil, gasoline and diesel prices add to concerns that higher energy prices could spill over to other goods and services and inflation expectations,\" Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic said in a note. \"As such we are now looking for the Fed to raise rates\" next week, she said.\nFed chairman Kevin Warsh has been reluctant to tip his hand on the central bank's next move, but in a speech last month he said the Fed would \"have work to do\" if it could not \"be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed.\"\nThe US economy, meanwhile, is contending with resurgent energy prices as the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine wars hit supplies. This week, oil prices pushed above US$100 a barrel and US retail diesel prices rose to a record.\nFriday's report showed the overall CPI was up 0.4% from the prior month and 3.4% from a year earlier. Energy prices rose 2.1% in August, while grocery prices were little changed and owners' equivalent rent, the largest component of the CPI, advanced 0.2%.\nRecord increases\nServices prices excluding energy and rents rose 0.5%, boosted by a record increase in wireless telephone services, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Hotel and motel rates and airline fares also posted strong advances.\nGoods prices, excluding food and energy commodities, edged up 0.1%, led by increases in prices for new and used vehicles.\nThe report also contained signs of ongoing pressures from the data centre buildout: Computer software and accessories prices rose a record 25.4% from a year earlier, while prices of computers, peripherals and smart home assistants advanced a near-record 8.4%.\nMany Americans have been squeezed between rising prices and tepid pay gains. A separate report Friday that combines the inflation figures with recent wage data showed real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% in August from a year earlier, adding to a string of weak readings since the Iran war began.\nCentral banks typically raise interest rates to increase borrowing costs, dampen demand and cool inflation. Fed officials have left rates steady at each of their last five meetings, though at the July gathering, three of them dissented in favour of a quarter-point rate hike.\nThe August CPI report is the last major gauge of inflation before the September gathering. A separate report Thursday showed producer prices rose last month by the most since May, lifted by a surge in energy prices.\nThe Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures price index, is due at the end of the month. Economists currently expect overall inflation as measured by that gauge will end the year north of 3%, still well above the central bank's 2% goal.\nUploaded by Chng Shear Lane","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.50.0","shortVersion":"4.50.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2666957008","isCrawlerRequest":true}