Bitcoin fell Tuesday ahead of a Senate procedural vote on the Clarity Act, with investors looking to Washington for a potential catalyst after the cryptocurrency's August rally lost steam.
With less than three hours before the scheduled vote, bitcoin was trading down 2.6% at around $76,450, according to CoinGlass.
The Senate is set to vote at around 2:15 p.m. ET on whether to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for digital assets, including rules governing their issuance, trading and regulation. It needs Democratic support to secure the 60 votes required to clear the procedural hurdle.
Sen. Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo., chair for the Senate Banking Digital Assets Subcommittee, said Monday evening that more than 100 substantive changes requested by Democrats were made to ensure the bill had bipartisan support. "The Democrats should embrace this bill," she said at a conference.
Prediction-market traders remain skeptical that the legislation will make it across the finish line this year. Polymarket puts the probability of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 at 14%, down from 31% Monday morning. Separately, traders give bitcoin a 96% chance of ending Tuesday between $76,000 and $78,000.
Polymarket has a data sharing partnership with Dow Jones, publisher of Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal.
The vote is the legislation's most-immediate obstacle, said Andrew Melville, head of research at institutional crypto derivatives data and analytics firm Block Scholes. Even if it clears Tuesday's vote, the Senate version contains significant revisions from the legislation passed by the House and the differences would have to be reconciled before President Trump can sign it.
The bill's progress has been held up by disagreements over issues including consumer protection and restrictions on public officials profiting from crypto. Senate Banking Committee Democrats have continued to raise objections to the legislation's investor-protection and ethics provisions.
Bitcoin rose around 25% between Aug. 19 and Aug. 25, and climbed above $82,000 at the start of September before pulling back. Investors have recently viewed $80,000 as an opportunity to sell, said Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares.
Investors also are awaiting the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision Wednesday. Analysts have pointed to both progress on crypto regulation and the Fed decision as potential catalysts for bitcoin as it struggles to regain the $80,000 level.
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