The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1126 ET - The U.S. corn crop was in 57% good/excellent condition this week, up from 56% the week before but down from 67% this time last year, according to the USDA's latest report. The corn harvest was 8% complete compared with 7% a year ago. "The widespread heatwaves seen to finish the growing season have certainly sped up maturity, but scattered heavy rains across the Midwest in the last week ultimately kept somewhat of a lid on progress at the national level," Mike Castle of StoneX says in a note. Soybeans were 58% good/excellent, with 6% harvested. That's double the five-year average of 3%, "again reflecting the rapid maturation due to recent excessive heat," Castle adds. The spring wheat harvest is 93% complete, with winter wheat 8% planted. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1027 ET - Precious metals are modestly lower as the market looks to tomorrow's Fed interest-rate decision, which is widely expected to be a rate increase. The risk of higher yields extends beyond the U.S., DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman says in a note. "Persistent tensions in the Middle East have kept oil prices high, sustaining inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that monetary policy will remain restrictive across major economies." Silver could find support in industrial demand, he adds, noting a rise in Chinese industrial output led by equipment and high-tech manufacturing. "Sustained strength in these sectors could support silver consumption." Silver for December delivery is off 0.1% in New York at $64.05 a troy ounce. Gold is down 0.5% at $4,331.10 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1003 ET - Grains are lower in early trading, weighed down in part by the possibility of Russia and Ukraine working on an agreement to stop attacking each other's infrastructure. Both traded strikes overnight after President Trump said they had agreed to halt attacks on energy targets. The prospect of a halt on energy strikes prompted expectations that any agreement could extend to attacks on shipping in the Black Sea, which has affected grain exports. CBOT corn is off 0.8%, wheat is 0.9% lower and soybeans are down 0.2%.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0905 ET - U.S. natural gas futures add to Monday's gains as more days of hot weather are seen before cooling demand is set to taper off toward the end of the month. After strong demand the next five days, "national demand eases to moderate then low levels for days 6-15 as the southern U.S. cools several degrees and with highs of mostly 80s to lower 90s," NatGasWeather.com says in a note. "In addition, the northern half of the U.S. will be perfect temperature-wise with comfortable highs of 60s-80s for light demand." Nymex natural gas is up 1.4% at $2.936/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0850 ET - Oil futures are higher in early U.S. trading amid market pessimism about flows out of the Middle East following the outage of a key Saudi pipeline and the increased Houthi threat to Red Sea shipping. "With Hormuz, the Saudi bypass and Bab al-Mandeb all simultaneously exposed, the market is pricing a broader loss of route flexibility, not just a supply shock," Kaynat Chainwala of Kotak Neo says in a note. "Unless there's a credible diplomatic breakthrough, the risk premium looks set to stay elevated." WTI is up 1.6% at $103..00 a barrel and Brent rises 1% at $106.75. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
0605 ET - Palm oil rose in Asia's trading session. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,883 ringgit a metric ton. Prices were likely supported by overnight strength in rival edible oils and persistent concerns of El Nino-related hot-and-dry weather conditions expected to affect output, Kenanga Futures wrote in a note. Kenanga pegs resistance for the November futures contract at 4,950 ringgit a ton. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)
0401 ET - Gold futures are down 0.5% at $4,331.20 a troy ounce in morning European trade. The fall comes as higher energy prices reinforce expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin raising rates, ANZ analysts say. Higher interest rates weigh on non-yield assets like gold. Tightening oil supplies push Brent crude up 2% to $107.70 a barrel. Expectations of higher inflation mean traders now price in an 86% probability of a hike at next week's meeting, they say.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0351 ET - European natural gas prices remain well supported, with the Dutch TTF contract trading down 0.3% at 82.265 euros a megawatt-hour. Prices show little prospect of falling further as escalation in the Middle East dents chances of an imminent pickup in LNG flows from the Persian Gulf, ING analysts write. The global LNG market will therefore be tight as the Northern hemisphere enters its heating season and means Europe will struggle to hit the lower end of its storage targets, which aims for at least 75%, ahead of winter, they say. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0015 ET - Aneka Tambang's gold margins are expected to recover, with sustained nickel ore momentum supporting stronger second-half earnings, Nomura analyst Ahmad Maghfur Usman notes. Although 2Q gross margin slipped to 15.7% from 19.2% in 1Q as tighter domestic gold trading margins halved precious metals profit, the company's fiscal 2026 operational guidance is broadly in line with expectations. The bank lowers its target price to 5,300 rupiah from 6,100 rupiah to reflect tighter domestic gold trading margins and higher first-half finance costs. Nomura maintains its buy rating on the stock. Shares are up 0.9% at 3,220 rupiah. (venkat.pr@wsj.com)
2247 ET - Palm oil rises in early Asian trading, supported by expectations of tighter global vegetable-oil supplies. El Nino risks and tightening supply are likely to further support crude palm oil prices, CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang says in a report. However, weaker export demand could limit gains. Cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia estimates that Malaysian palm oil exports fell 17% on month during Sept. 1-10. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for November delivery is up 23 ringgit at 4,873 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
2212 ET - Copper rises in Asian trade. Persistent mine-supply constraints could continue to support the base metal, say ING strategists in a note. This is despite pressure on prices due to calls from leading technology executives to slow artificial intelligence development, which is likely weighing on the data-center investment outlook, they add. Copper is typically used in data centers for electrical applications. The three-month copper futures contract on the London Metal Exchange is up 0.2% at $14,032.00 a metric ton. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
2151 ET - Iron ore futures are lower in Asian trade. Demand for iron ore remains weak in China, while supplies are still high, Baocheng Futures analysts say in a note. This is leading to a weak fundamental outlook for iron ore and is expected to continue weighing on prices, they say. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is down 0.5% at 708.0 yuan a ton.
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