'This is not going to be the year to tempt fate,' one travel expert says
Some consumers are expected to be priced out of holiday travel thanks to skyrocketing airfares.
Thanksgiving, Hanukkah and Christmas are still months away - but travel experts are advising those heading home for the holidays to book their flights now.
In August, airline fares were up more than 23% from the year prior, according to the U.S. consumer-price index - and flights are expected to keep getting pricier. The cost of jet fuel was at $4.32 a gallon as of Sept. 11, according to energy-information provider Platts, up 6% from the previous week and nearly 16% from the prior month.
Even those budgeting fall and winter travel this week will likely see elevated prices. While the cost of Brent crude oil (BRN00), which is used to produce jet fuel, dropped significantly in the summer, the price surged above $100 a barrel again last week after military escalation in the Middle East threatened to further tighten global oil supply.
Because pricey airfares haven't slowed travel demand thus far, airlines have been raising ticket prices over the past year to cover increasingly expensive fuel - and experts expect some consumers to be priced out of holiday travel altogether.
At the start of 2026, the average domestic airfare was $290, according to Kayak's airfare tracker; by Sept. 7, the average fare had skyrocketed to $397. Consumers are especially likely to feel the sticker shock when booking flights for busy travel days. Round-trip economy flights from New York City to Los Angeles, leaving the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and returning Sunday, ranged from $579 to $1,177, Google Flights showed Tuesday afternoon.
"Anyone planning to travel for Thanksgiving or in December should book their flights now to secure the lowest available prices," said Peter Vlitas, executive vice president of partner relations for international travel brand Internova Travel Group. "As flights fill up, fares increase significantly."
JetBlue's $(JBLU)$ recent update to investors is one example of how airlines are passing higher costs on to consumers. The New York-based carrier reported higher fuel bills in a Sept. 10 filing, but said "strong underlying demand" is allowing the company to raise ticket prices to cover the extra expenses. The airline also noted that "early fourth-quarter booking trends also remain encouraging."
Katy Nastro, aviation and travel correspondent for the flight-tracker app Flighty, said even people who typically book budget airlines might be out of luck ahead of the holiday season.
"Even the cheapest of cheap flights, the Frontiers $(ULCC)$ of the world, Allegiants $(ALGT)$, there is no incentive there for them to keep those deeply discounted prices ... because they're feeling the impacts from jet-fuel prices just the same," Nastro said. "They don't have the luxury of the cash in the bank, like these bigger airlines do, to eat some of that cost."
Travelmation travel agent Mallory Dumond said she's been tracking holiday flights and has noticed that prices dip a bit on Tuesdays - but added that the pattern "is not a hard-fast rule" and she's seeing pricing starting to increase across the board. Dumond recommends that travelers planning to head home for the holidays use Google's flight-tracker tool to keep up with price changes. Even those who have already booked a flight should keep tracking it: If the fare does happen to drop, the airline could issue a voucher for the difference.
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If oil prices continue to increase, consumers won't just feel the squeeze from rising travel costs - food and gasoline prices are expected to climb as well. Operating on tighter budgets, Nastro expects some consumers to skip trips home for Thanksgiving to save money for a December flight, or opt out of holiday travel completely.
"This year, more than ever, it is so much more important to look forward, look to the next big travel moment, and get those plans locked in," she said. "This is not going to be the year to tempt fate."
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-Genna Contino
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