Slower-than-expected robotaxi progress is still a chief concern, according to experts
Tesla CEO Elon Musk unveiled the all-electric Semi truck in 2017 along with the Roadster sports car. Both are set to get a new unveiling, nearly nine years later.
Tesla's stock has some catching up to do. But even after an action-packed slate of fall product events, analysts say investors may be left wanting.
Over the next few weeks, Tesla (TSLA) plans to inaugurate a factory dedicated to its electric Semi truck and give a long-awaited update on the Roadster sports car. It already hosted a Cybercab "launch event" earlier this month.
These come in a year when Tesla's stock has meaningfully lagged behind the market. Shares are down 18% so far this year, while the S&P 500 SPX has increased 11%.
The upcoming events promise glimpses into a few of Tesla's most ambitious products. The Semi could open Tesla up to a new vertical as diesel prices surge, while the Cybercab is expected to eventually transform its robotaxi business. The Roadster, while niche, emphasizes Tesla's relationship with sister company SpaceX (SPCX).
However, the first of the trio of events has less than impressed. Tesla built hype ahead of the Cybercab event, which Musk said would usher in a "storm of Cybercabs" across Austin, Texas. But it was panned by investors for failing to provide much new information, and the Cybercab is currently in a limited deployment in Austin.
The event also likely added to frustration about the slow-moving progress Tesla has had with robotaxis. While the company and its CEO had made optimistic predictions of growth, Tesla offers its robotaxi service in just six cities across Texas and Florida, along with supervised trips in San Francisco. It also listed Nevada and Arizona as targets.
Andrew Rocco, a stock strategist at Zacks Investment Research, noted that progress has been slower than investors had expected and that they "really want to see" more robotaxis in new cities. He added that Tesla investors are "always looking" for the company's next products, and that the stock has been in a state of "consolidation" because things are taking longer than perhaps expected.
The Semi and the Roadster have been in the works for years, suffering repeated delays since they were both introduced to investors by Musk as concepts in November 2017. The Semi was meant to go into production in 2019, while the Roadster was targeted for 2020, according to Tesla.
Each has some benefits. The all-electric Semi gives Tesla a way into the autonomous trucking industry, which Morgan Stanley analysts see reaching a turning point in 2027. Analyst Andrew Percoco estimates that Tesla's Semi trucks could generate $17 billion worth of software revenue by 2040.
Meanwhile, the Roadster is unlikely to be a big driver of revenue. In a client note, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney said "absolute demand" will be limited by its high price, which has historically been said to be around $250,000.
Rather, the Roadster will be what Morningstar analyst Seth Goldstein calls a "halo car," meant to demonstrate Tesla's technology. Among other things, Musk has advertised a "SpaceX option package" with 10 "small rocket thrusters" that may even allow the car to fly.
"We actually need an audience to vouch for the fact that this is not AI," Musk said this week of the Roadster during an appearance at the All-in Summit.
Still, investors aren't thought to really put much stake in either of the products. CFRA analyst Garret Nelson told MarketWatch over email that he is "skeptical the Semi or Roadster will do much to raise investor enthusiasm." It's also unclear how much information Tesla will actually provide at its planned events.
Goldstein told MarketWatch that investor sentiment depends on Tesla expanding the robotaxi service, "tangible" progress with the Optimus humanoid robots and improving free cash flow.
Wall Street expects negative FCF of $9.7 billion in 2026, according to FactSet data, as the company invests in projects related to artificial intelligence. Free cash flow measures how much money a company has after its costs have all been paid.
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