Fitch Ratings Expects Oil Market to Return to Substantial Surplus in 2027

Dow Jones13:00

0500 GMT - Fitch Ratings expects the oil market to return to a substantial surplus in 2027. While it expects oil prices to fall next year, Fitch has raised its 2027 forecast for oil to US$70 a barrel from $65 a barrel to reflect the longer-than-anticipated Middle East conflict and the implications for the geopolitical risk premium. Analysts Brian Coulton and Alex Muscatelli acknowledge a high level of uncertainty around these projections. Assuming a deal between the U.S. and Iran takes shape in 1Q of 2027, supply and demand fundamentals could play a bigger role in determining oil prices. On the upside, geopolitical uncertainties could result in oil prices averaging $85 a barrel next year, while on the downside, a rapid recovery in supply could see prices fall to $55 a barrel, they say in a report.

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