0413 GMT - Australian bookmaker Tabcorp gets a new bull at RBC, where analyst Mark Wilson sees strong earnings growth, stable market share and a sound balance sheet. Initiating coverage of the ASX-listed stock with an outperform rating, Wilson tells clients in a note that Tabcorp is holding share of a mature and very competitive wagering market. He anticipates A$25 million of fiscal 2027 benefits from the company's new retail commercial model, on top of the A$22 million delivered in fiscal 2026, and likes the idea of the A$30 million in cost synergies targeted from the continuing acquisition of BetMakers. Wilson acknowledges the overhang from regulatory investigations, but believes any resolution is likely to be long-dates. RBC puts a target price of 1.25 Australian dollars on the stock, which is up 4.1% at A$0.9575. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0335 GMT - Any interest-rate rises by the Reserve Bank of Australia are seen by Morgan Stanley analysts as mitigating major banks' margin declines rather than supporting expansion. With market pricing pointing to growing expectations that the RBA will deliver more than one interest-rate rise starting next week, MS analysts tell clients in a note that every 0.25% increase in the country's cash rate could add about 1 bp to their margin forecasts. However, they warn that major banks are less leveraged to rising rates than in 2022, when the RBA was last tightening policy. They see margins declining from current levels due to competition, deposit pricing and mix. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0316 GMT - Australia is seen by Morgan Stanley analysts as well placed to benefit from constraints on how rapidly U.S. data centers can be built to meet surging artificial intelligence demand. They think that Australia could accommodate part of this demand overflow, pointing to its data sovereignty requirements and renewables-assisted capability to power the centers. Australia already ranks in the global top five for installed data-center capacity, they say in a note to clients. While large-scale and household batteries are increasing Australia's energy storage capacity and damping forward electricity prices, U.S. data-center energy costs are becoming increasingly expensive, they add. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0315 GMT - MA Moelis Australia thinks Luca Mining is getting Capstone Copper's Cozamin mine at an attractive price. The up to US$385 million sale compares to MA's valuation of US$631 million. "However, we are conscious of potential discrepancies between our price assumptions and those used by both CSC and the party acquiring the asset," it says. The price might also suggest either a shorter mine life or higher exit obligations than MA was estimating. "Regardless, the difference between our valuation assumption and the upfront sale price is arguably modest" versus Capstone's over A$11 billion market value, it says. The deal also offers some potential benefits for Capstone, including reducing operating risk, says MA. It has a buy rating and A$16.40 target on Capstone. Shares are up 1.4% at A$14.76. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0301 GMT - At first glance, Bellevue Gold's FY result looks better than expected, says MA Moelis Australia. It cites the treatment of operating leases between the quarterly update and annual fiscal result as the reason. "BGL include various lease expenses in operating costs as per AISC [all-in sustaining cost] reporting guidelines, which are subsequently treated as a finance expense in the formal accounts," says MA. "We clearly need to find a way to better reflect this in our estimates." Bellevue's result is otherwise "fairly clean" and it remains well placed to close its hedge book soon. That would give a big boost to both earnings and cash flow, which could drive a continued re-rating, MA says. It has a buy rating and 1.95 Australian dollar target on the stock. Shares are up 5.5% at A$1.635. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0125 GMT - Ramelius Resources' better-than-expected medium-term production outlook offsets higher costs and near-term cash flow constraints, according to Macquarie. The gold miner's FY 2029-2030 production forecasts are up to 12% higher than consensus. Macquarie keeps a neutral rating and 4.00 Australian dollar target on the stock. It says it thinks Ramelius's shares are fairly valued, trading at roughly 9.0x FY 2027 enterprise value/Ebitda estimates. Macquarie cautions that higher capital expenditure will limit near-term cash flow generation. Shares are up 3.4% at A$3.93, adding to Monday's 6.2% gain. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0108 GMT - Resolute Mining loses a bull in Macquarie after downgrading 2026 production and cost guidance, citing ongoing disruptions in Mali. The gold miner said a challenging operating environment continues to impact underground mining, open-pit mining and sulfide processing at its Syama mine. "Near-term sentiment will be dominated by performance at Syama, which is outside management control," says Macquarie. The bank downgrades Resolute to neutral from outperform. It cuts its share-price target to 1.35 Australian dollars from A$1.45. "Over time, we see upside with the development of Doropo," Macquarie says. The stock is down 1.4% at A$1.2225, adding to Monday's 8.5% loss. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2325 GMT - Increasing numbers of Australian mortgage brokers see ANZ as the major bank competing hardest for business, Macquarie analysts say. Pointing to the results of Macquarie's annual survey of Australian mortgage brokers, the analysts say there has been a 42% on-year rise in the number of brokers who call out ANZ as the most competitive. Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank are at the bottom of the list, the analysts say in a note. ANZ is perceived to have become significantly more competitive on pricing and offers, but they wonder whether the lender is buying share and see risk of revenue attrition in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028. The analysts add that the importance to customers of borrowing power has risen sharply amid rising interest rates and changes to property related tax breaks. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
0518 GMT - The Australian government's recent changes to immigration policy, aimed at curbing net overseas migration, are likely to have a modest impact on the country's real estate investment trusts, Moody's Ratings says in a commentary. The announced measures will slow the pace of population growth and modestly reduce the incremental commercial real estate required to support that growth over the next two years, it says. However, development supply across most real-estate sectors remains constrained. Higher construction costs and land prices, labor cost pressures, and higher financing costs are weighing on property supply, it says. New supply will likely remain 20%-50% below historical levels across the office, retail and industrial property sectors through to 2030, it adds.
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