US equity investors are expected to look out for Fed speak, purchasing managers' indexes, and Iran geopolitics this week as the Q2 earnings season heads toward closing.
* Following the 25 basis point interest rate increase last week, and with expectations for more policy tightening this year, investors will focus on the macroeconomic data due this week to help gauge the Fed's path ahead. Jobless claims, new home sales, durable goods orders, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment final with inflation expectations are among the data due this week, in addition to the S&P Global Composite PMIs.
* On durables, Boeing (BA) posted only 15 net orders in August, which will likely translate to a 23% month-over-month decline in seasonally adjusted nondefense aircraft orders, according to a Jefferies note. This is going to drag down the headline to a decline of 1.2%.
* This week, the seasonals won't push the jobless claims print quite as low as last week, but continued evidence that layoff activity remains "very muted" is expected, per the note.
* Federal Reserve Governors Philip Jefferson and Michael Barr, along with regional Fed Presidents Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, and Anna Paulson, are all scheduled to deliver public remarks this week.
* "The fact that there are only two [Federal Open Market Committee] members who believe the central bank won't hike again this year suggests a broad hawkish repositioning has already occurred within the FOMC," according to an ING note. "The focus will therefore be on individual Fed speakers as markets gauge the timing of the next potential interest rate hike."
* Quarterly earnings due this week include Costco (COST), Darden Restaurants (DRI), AutoZone (AZO), KB Home (KBH), Paychex (PAYX), and General Mills (GIS).
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