A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Sept. 21-25 by Dow Jones Newswires in London.
GRAINS & OILSEEDS: Thursday's summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping is a key focus for agricultural markets. Preliminary talks between U.S. and Chinese representatives are already underway before the White House set piece Thursday, with talks expected to drive agriculture-related headlines. Traders will watch to see if China will raise its purchases of U.S. soybeans, while uncertainty around the talks could prompt selling, analysts at Peak Trading Research said.
Moreover, investors will watch the UN General Assembly in New York, including for any signs of progress on a moratorium on attacks in the Black Sea. Grain exports in the region have tumbled amid sustained Russian and Ukrainian attacks on shipping and grains infrastructure in the region.
The Federal Reserve's hawkish rate hike last week weighed on the outlook for agricultural commodities, which typically fall in higher-rate environments. Speeches from Fed policymakers this week will be watched closely for clues to the Fed's rate-setting path.
The El Nino weather system poses a threat to Brazil's new soybean planting season, with northern and central western regions in the country seeing no rain for nearly 10 days. Heat remains a risk for Australian grain crops, with hot winds and limited rainfall across major growing areas pressuring crop conditions, ING analysts wrote in a research note.
Speculative traders cut their investments in agricultural commodities last week, though investors continue to hold net long positions, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders report.
Wheat futures rose 1.3% in Chicago to $7.23 a bushel in European afternoon trade Monday, while corn futures added 1.2% to $5.34 a bushel. Soybean contracts climbed 0.8% to $13.14 a bushel.
SOFT COMMODITIES: Cocoa prices recovered slightly after falling sharply last week, with New York contracts rising 2.9% to $5,481 a metric ton. Cocoa stores are amply filled in Europe and the U.S., ING analysts said, pushing the commodity toward its first monthly fall since February. Demand has been slow to recover amid chocolate manufacturers following the extended period of higher prices since 2024, they said.
Concerns over supply from Ivory Coast and Ghana continue to keep prices elevated. Investors will also watch for the progress of a strike in the Ivory Coast, amid farmer concern around traceability measures imposed by the regulator, which track cocoa products from cultivation to sale.
New York coffee futures nudged up 0.1% to $2.81 a pound. Prices are below summer highs, as strong Brazilian exports outweighed concerns over tight inventories, Rabobank analysts said.
Sugar contracts rose 0.9% to 18.14 cents a pound.
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