The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2042 ET - South Korea's downstream oil and gas sector is likely to remain stable in 2026, despite pressure from elevated freight costs and geopolitical risks, BMI says in a report. The Fitch Solutions unit sees the country shifting toward a broader energy-security strategy focused on reducing its dependence on Middle Eastern crude. The government aims to reduce the Middle Eastern share of crude imports to 60% or less, from 69.1% in 2024, it notes. Latest energy import data show the country's increased sourcing flexibility, with the Middle East accounting for 62.8% of crude imports in the January-May period and the Americas, including the U.S., accounting for 26.6% in May, it adds. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)
2037 ET - Bitcoin rises in early Asia trade, staying around 8-month highs above $86,000. A sustained break above that line would signal a more solid recovery after several false starts. Bitcoin's gains this month stand at around 10%--far below August's rally but still notable as they have come despite a recent Fed rate increase. The cryptocurrency has recovered more than 14% since the hike, showing greater resilience in a restrictive monetary environment, says Antonio Di Giacomo at XS.com. Support is coming from easing oil prices that have partially tamed inflation concerns, moderating Treasury yields and institutional capital inflows, he says. Still, risks remain, with the $87,500 area representing the first major resistance, followed by the $90,000 psychological barrier. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $86,482. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)
1603 ET - Bond markets trade sideways but the U.S. Treasury borrowing costs keep rising. A two-year notes auction has a yield of 4.787%, the highest paid by the Treasury since May 2024. Demand was robust, nonetheless. A five-year auction is scheduled for tomorrow, followed by a seven-year tender on Thursday. Oil prices fall around 1% amid hopes of a deal to normalize trade through the Strait of Hormuz. Inflation expectations as measured by one-year swaps decline to 2.3% from 2.6% two weeks ago, but remain above the Fed's 2% target, according to LSEG. The 10-year yield rises 0.004 percentage point to 4.966%, while the two-year slips 0.001 point to 4.749%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1443 ET - After the 2022 release of ChatGPT, recent graduates from more-exposed majors to AI at Texas universities experiences a 1.7 percentage point drop in the probability of finding employment in Texas within a year of graduating relative to graduates from less-exposed majors, an analysis from the Dallas Fed finds. "Students from more-exposed majors who found jobs after 2022 earned 5 percent lower wages relative to earnings changes for less-exposed majors," the analysis says. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1433 ET - The U.S. clean-energy industry lost nearly 37,000 jobs last year, reversing a four-year period of annual workforce expansion that followed a broader economic recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic, according to E2, a nonpartisan group of business leaders, investors and professionals who advocate for clean energy. The industry recorded job losses across 35 U.S. states and all its largest subsectors--energy efficiency, renewable power and clean vehicles, E2 says. Energy storage and grid modernization, alongside biofuels, were the only subsectors that "posted slight increases in new jobs," E2 adds. California alone lost almost 21,000 jobs, while Florida saw the largest job gains by adding roughly 3,800 positions. Clean energy represents the largest workforce in the U.S. overall energy industry, with about 3.5 million workers, compared with 958,000 in the oil-and-gas sector, according to E2. (luis.garcia@wsj.com; @lhvgarcia)
1403 ET - Hyperliquid tokens are closing in on $100 -- finding a new record-high of $96.68, up 2.8% for the day. That makes it about 25% that Hyperliquid has gained in the past week alone, and over 280% year-to-date. HYPE and Zcash are the two hottest gainers among cryptocurrencies with market capitalization in the top 10 in 2026, with Hyperliquid's underlying platform growing to one of the largest exchanges for trading perpetual futures, this even without U.S. exposure. Regulatory moves to allow Hyperliquid to operate in the U.S. may prove to further fuel the token's gains, says Zach Pandl of Grayscale Research in a note. Bitcoin slides 0.5% to $86,511, ethereum is down 1.2% to $2,752, and solana falls 0.9% to $117.92. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1334 ET - Fitch Ratings is slightly increasing its forecast for global GDP growth, adding world growth is holding up well in the face of the energy price shock, though real interest rates are climbing. Its 2026 global GDP forecast rises by 0.2 percentage point to 2.6%, which is only marginally lower than 2025 and close to the long-term trend, Fitch says. Fitch also raises its U.S. forecasts for both this year and next by 0.2 pp to 2.1%, while its China forecast for this year is cut by 0.1 pp to 4.5%. The Eurozone has shown resilience, Fitch says, and forecasts have edged up, with German GDP expanding by 1% year-over-year in 2Q26 after three years of stagnation, Fitch adds. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)
1250 ET - The former head of fixed-income powerhouse Pimco says the first thing he looks at in the morning is diesel. Mohamed El-Erian made the comments on CNBC as the price of diesel, the lifeblood of so many economic sectors, hits records daily. El-Erian, now chief economic adviser at Allianz, says the main problem for the U.S. economy is supply side, particularly energy, and investors need to stop pushing central banks saying "you're the only game in town." He thinks effective remedies lie with other policymakers that address the supply side, such as reducing sensitivity to choke-point areas like the Strait of Hormuz. On the demand side he says reducing debt burdens and budget deficits is a must. Without these things, the Fed could sacrifice the real economy just to quell Wall Street's expectations. (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1217 ET - New York Fed President John Williams expressed his support for the central bank's current operational system, which relies on administered rates rather than active reserve management. "The combination of an ample supply of reserves and these tools enables the FOMC to maintain strong interest rate control and flexibility regarding changes in the size of the balance sheet," Williams said in New York this morning. "This operational framework has proven to be highly effective at delivering interest rate control and supporting the smooth functioning of core financial markets." (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)
1209 ET - Bitcoin ETFs started the week with a bang, with CoinGlass reporting net inflows of $999M to bitcoin ETFs on Monday. It was the third trading session in a row that bitcoin ETFs have reported net inflows, with a net $1.59B inflow seen in that timeframe. Bitcoin has inched back from its highest point since January, trading down 0.7% to $86,407. Analysts say that resistance for bitcoin is now around $90k. Ethereum is down 1.3% to $2,747, XRP is up 2.9% to $1.57, and solana falls 1.3% to $117.46. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1119 ET - President Trump's plan to buy Belarus potash and circumvent Canadian imports may not be as easy or as viable as he makes it seem. According to a Scotiabank report, analyst Ben Isaacson says the proposal lacks economic logic. Canada currently supplies roughly 80% of U.S. potash needs, benefiting from a $75-a-ton freight advantage over Belarus when delivering to the American Midwest. Logistics is another problem. Without port access through Lithuania, "it's difficult to see how Belarus could earn a higher netback selling into the U.S. vs. Brazil or China," and "certainly with no room for Belarus to accept a "substantially" lower price," Isaacson says. Adding to the confusion, Trump's Truth Social post came just hours after Belarusian President Lukashenko stated he "had no potash available to offer the west," Isaacson says. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
1112 ET - Investors appear to overestimate the Bank of England's interest rate rises over the coming year, UBS's Mark Haefele says in a note. Markets expect the BOE to raise interest rates by a total of 101 basis points by November 2027, LSEG data show. "The latest underlying inflation data support our view that markets are pricing longer tightening cycles than are likely to be delivered," Haefele says. UBS expects the BOE to raise interest rates by a quarter-point, each, in November and in February 2027.
Comments