A rocket-supply crunch is prompting a scramble across the space industry.
Companies are hunting for new ways to get satellites and spacecraft deployed, while many rockets under development are behind schedule. Some executives are pursuing costly strategies to ensure they can fly, like building their own rockets or potentially acquiring a rocket company. Prices for many missions are rising.
Driving the squeeze: SpaceX is winding down Falcon 9, the world's busiest rocket, to focus on its new Starship vehicle. SpaceX has stopped selling missions where several companies share space on a Falcon 9, according to people familiar with the matter. Some companies haven't been able to secure flights on Falcon 9 after 2028, some of the people said.
The Falcon 9 phaseout is occurring with launch demand set to outstrip supply at least through the end of the decade, according to government and industry officials.
"We have thousands of satellites slated to launch by 2030," said Robert Perez-Alemany, who works on space issues for the Pentagon's Defense Innovation Unit. "If capacity doesn't keep pace with demand, more satellites are going to sit on the ground."
SpaceX didn't respond to requests for comment.
Governments and companies are hungry to deploy satellites, even though a record number are already in orbit. Investors have been pouring billions into space companies on the promise they will be able to get their devices into space.
Satellites are being developed for national-security missions and big projects like President Trump's Golden Dome missile shield. Companies need room on rockets for devices that can photograph Earth, ferry cargo to the surface of the moon and provide internet connections. Startups are working on data centers in orbit, power systems and more.
"There's a lot of panic in the market right now," said Andy Lapsa, chief executive of Stoke Space, which is developing its own rockets.
The company decided to accelerate work on a bigger vehicle, in part because of the mismatch between supply and demand for launch. It recently completed a $1 billion funding round to support that development and the first flight of its Nova Pathfinder rocket next year.
Falcon to Starship
Falcon 9, which made its debut in 2010, launched at rates that shattered expectations about how often rockets could fly. The partially reusable rocket made it easier and cheaper to get to space, including through missions where it carried payloads from several companies.
The list price for a standard Falcon 9 launch is up 19% over five years to $74 million.
Portal Space Systems, which develops maneuverable spacecraft for military and other applications, decided to guarantee it could get to orbit in 2028 by purchasing a dedicated Falcon 9 flight-something that wasn't in its initial plans.
"The growth of a space company is really driven by when you get the first hardware on orbit, and then when you get the next hardware and the next hardware" there, said Portal CEO Jeff Thornburg. "What I couldn't afford to do is gap access to space for Portal."
Much of SpaceX's future hinges on Starship. The huge rocket could offer new options for space companies, but many industry executives are waiting to learn more about when the vehicle will be ready, how much launches will cost and how technical hurdles will be addressed.
Outside clients will be competing for Starship flights with SpaceX itself, which is planning to aggressively use the vehicle to transport satellites for its Starlink internet business and for artificial-intelligence computing in space. During the rocket's next launch, the vehicle will attempt to deploy working Starlink satellites into orbit for the first time.
Falcon 9 won't disappear overnight. Texas-based SpaceX plans to sunset its Falcon production line after stockpiling enough rockets to serve customers for several more years, one person familiar with the plans said.
The U.S. government is expected to keep Falcon busy, with flights on the rocket and its larger variant potentially extending into the early 2030s. The military has booked more than 50 future national-security missions with Falcon, a Space Force spokeswoman said.
Racing to launch
Rival rocket operators are pushing to fill the void but will be hard-pressed to offer immediate relief.
"I'm optimistic about the idea that you could get to the point where there's multiple players," Brian Manning, CEO of positioning-and-navigation satellite startup Xona Space Systems, said of launch providers. "I do think that's a couple years away still."
Increasing the rate of rocket launches will take time, and setbacks are common.
One setback involved Blue Origin, which is controlled by Amazon.com founder Jeff Bezos. In May, the company's New Glenn rocket exploded on a launchpad in Florida, wrecking the site. Blue is redeveloping the property and has said it identified the cause of the accident.
The incident created delays for companies like AST SpaceMobile, which has booked New Glenn to deploy its direct-to-mobile communications satellites.
"We were sad to see what happened," AST President Scott Wisniewski said of the explosion during an investor call last month. He noted Blue Origin's progress rebuilding and plan to fly again this year: "We're not betting on that necessarily. We'll be happy if they do it."
AST's finance chief said on the same call that the company was looking for ways to better secure access to orbit, including by striking partnerships or even buying rocket technology for its own use. The company completed a launch in August-on Falcon 9.
Comments