Fed Could Raise Rates Twice More, but Risk of Further Hikes Remain

Dow Jones09-24 13:09

0509 GMT - The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates twice more this year before an extended pause in 2027, says PGIM's Robert Sockin in a note. The revised language in the Fed's latest statement highlighted elevated economic uncertainty due to geopolitical risks, the economist says. He flags risk of further monetary-policy tightening beyond the two expected rate hikes, noting that the economy has become progressively less sensitive to interest rates and the Fed might need more hikes to cool inflation. This could result in more than 75 bps in cumulative rate hikes and aligns with an increased probability of economic recession, which PGIM places at 20%. Higher recession probability could also be attributed to the potential for a correction in artificial-intelligence-related activity, he adds.

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