The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0854 ET - Grain futures on the CBOT are lower in premarket, with traders seen as being risk-off ahead of the summit between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi. While not much in the way of fresh deals guaranteeing Chinese purchases of U.S. agricultural exports is expected, caution remains the overarching sentiment. "Headline risk is pertinent," says AgMarket.net in a note. Most-active corn futures fall 0.9% premarket, soybeans slide 0.6%, and wheat is down 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0850 ET - CBOT grain futures are lower in premarket, with most-active corn down 1%, soybeans off 0.6%, and wheat slipping 0.7%. For all three, the stronger U.S. dollar is creating pressure, says Argus in a note. "[They are] now coming to test important technical areas after a continuous decline observed since the beginning of the month," says the firm. A stronger dollar typically means that U.S. grain exports are less competitive on the world market versus other origins. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0628 ET - Palm oil futures ended lower, weighed by weaker soybean oil and crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Concerns about sluggish exports and rising inventories continue to pressure sentiment, he adds. Ng expects prices to find support at 4,700 ringgit a ton and face resistance at 4,850 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 42 ringgit to 4,768 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0538 ET - Talks between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping Thursday won't deliver breakthrough on AI chips and rare earths, Jefferies analysts say. The Trump administration's plans for a Board of Trade to oversee a reduction in tariffs across a range of products is "the single most possible deliverable" from talks, the analysts say. On the U.S. side, Boeing aircraft and medical devices could benefit from talks, with the analysts taking encouragement from recent comments by U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Agricultural and energy products could also benefit, they say. The two countries won't touch sectors of strategic importance, the analysts say. "We would not price in semiconductor or rare-earth relief." (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0451 ET - China's crude imports are expected to stay low in the coming months if oil prices remain elevated, analysts at Goldman Sachs say. Seaborne imports are currently about 3 million barrels a day below seasonal norms, despite a modest pickup in September. According to the U.S. bank, imports could increase by about 600,000 barrels a day in the fourth quarter mainly due to seasonal factors and refineries exporting more refined products while drawing down inventories more slowly. Despite the increase, imports are still forecast to be more than 3 million barrels a day lower than a year ago. "We continue to view a possible escalation of strikes on Mideast crude production and export infrastructure--not higher China imports--as the main upside risk to our crude price forecast," the analysts say. Goldman sees Brent at $85 a barrel in December. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0430 ET - A diesel export ban in the U.S. could force refineries to produce less fuel of all types and further raise domestic prices, according to the American Petroleum Institute. "If diesel exports were blocked, surplus fuel could start filling storage on the Gulf Coast," the trade association says. "As storage tanks are filled, the only way to avoid producing even more surplus diesel would be to process less crude oil." As a result, refineries would produce less gasoline, jet fuel and other products at a time when global supplies are tightening. "The impacts could extend far beyond pain at the pump, to dire consequences for international supply chains, agriculture, shipping, manufacturing and the entire global economy," the API says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0303 ET - Gold prices continue to trade in a tight range as prospects of higher interest rates to curb persistent inflation weigh on the non-yielding asset. In early European trading, gold futures are down 0.1% to $4,372.40 a troy ounce. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% to 100.71, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. "The direction of the dollar and real yields therefore remains critical in determining whether geopolitical demand translates into sustained upside for gold," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. Further losses, however, are capped by falling oil prices, which can reduce inflation pressure, and rising gold-backed ETF flows, according to analysts. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0053 ET - Malaysia's Budget 2027 could further support the consumer sector through higher household aid, potential tax relief and measures to ease living costs, CIMB Securities analyst Walter Aw Lik Hsin says in a note. Cash aid allocation could rise by 2 billion ringgit to 17 billion ringgit in 2027, while potential personal income tax relief could broaden support to middle-income households, he reckons. These measures are expected to provide a modest boost to domestic consumption. Aw says a potential minimum-wage increase could further support household incomes but raise labor costs for retailers and restaurants. CIMB maintains a neutral rating on the Malaysian consumer sector, and pegs QL Resources, Empire Premium Food, Life Water and Nestle (Malaysia) as top picks. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2253 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by overnight declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. Dry weather linked to El Nino has spread across Malaysia and Indonesia since early August, raising concerns over its impact on palm oil output. Weather conditions in October and November will be crucial in determining the impact on 2027 output, the Malaysian Palm Oil Council says in a note. Meanwhile, technical analysis suggests bearish momentum for crude palm oil futures could remain intact, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. The bank sees resistance at 4,870 ringgit a ton and support at 4,702 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 25 ringgit at 4,785 ringgit a ton.(yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2209 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trading. Prices are likely to stay rangebound at a relatively low level in the near term, according to Baocheng Futures in a research note. High shipment fees are supporting prices, the analysts say. The black metal meanwhile also faces pressure from weak demand and high supply, the analysts note. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.6% higher at CNY716.0 a ton.(tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2204 ET - There is a strong floor under gold prices around $3,800/oz, according to BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions. While the precious metal faces pressure from U.S. dollar strength and "a hawkish turn in U.S. Fed policy," geopolitical risks remain high and central bank purchases of gold continue, it says. BMI reiterates a 2026 average gold-price forecast of $4,400/oz. The price has averaged $4,555/oz year to date, it says. Spot gold is down 0.4% at $4,340.65/oz. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2145 ET - The price of nickel, which recently hit its lowest value since December, shows little sign of a recovery in the coming months, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Vivek Dhar. "With easing ore cost pressure and increased ore quotas, Indonesian production is expected to expand over the remainder of 2026," says Dhar. He says that could shift the market from a small deficit--the International Nickel Study Group forecast an annual market deficit around 30,000 metric tons--toward a surplus and put "a lid on nickel prices over the remainder of 2026." A rise in nickel stocks in London and Shanghai suggests that demand for finished metal is soft, Dhar says. LME 3-month nickel is up 0.3% at $16,675/ton.
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