The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0744 ET - Aluminum prices are expected to weaken into next year as the market moves into a surplus, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. The bank expects recovering supply from the Middle East and a ramp-up in Indonesia to outpace relatively soft demand, resulting in a forecasted global surplus of more than 800,000 tons in 2027. It sees prices falling to around $2,800 a ton in the second half of 2027 from $3,200 currently, although it says higher production costs and the potential for aluminum to substitute for copper should limit the downside.(giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0645 ET - Palm oil prices ended lower on weakness in the Chicago soybean oil market as well as lower crude oil prices, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Ng sees support at 4,800 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,950 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery ended 41 ringgit lower to 4,857 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
0543 ET - Cocoa prices are on track for the first monthly loss since February as comfortable near-term supplies continue to weigh on the outlook. "Exchange-monitored inventories in both Europe and the U.S. remain relatively ample, while demand recovery has been slow as manufacturers continue efforts to reduce cocoa usage following the period of elevated prices," analysts at ING say. Still, concerns over crop prospects in Ivory Coast and Ghana, and the risk of a strong El Nino continue to support expectations of a supply deficit in the 2026/27 season, according to the analysts. Cocoa futures trade above $5,420 a metric ton, down more than 20% this month. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0334 ET - London's miners open higher as oil prices ease. The gains come despite a small drop in gold prices as traders assess the inflation outlook. Miners are some of the world's largest consumers of diesel and higher prices increase the cost of mining and eat into margins. Oil is falling as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East step up, with President Trump set to meet Gulf leaders on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York this week. Anglo American gains 2.1% while BHP's London shares are 1.5% higher. Rio Tinto's shares are up 1%. Copper miner Antofagasta rises 2.3%.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0333 ET - Copper prices rise on signs of stronger demand from China and broader supply-side concerns. In early European trading, three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange are up 0.3% to $14,611.50 a metric ton, despite last week's interest-rate hike in the U.S., which typically weigh on demand and increase the cost of financing inventories. Copper mine output has been constrained, while inventories in China are at very low levels. Chinese buyers paid a premium of $124 a ton for physical copper over benchmark futures last week, the highest in four years, ANZ analysts say. China's domestic copper production also slipped slightly in August to 1.279 million metric tons. In Chile, meanwhile, the government has warned that copper output is likely to remain weak through the end of the year, reducing hopes for a recovery in the second half, according to ANZ. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0311 ET - Gold slips as investors weigh inflation risks and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook following last week's rate hike. In early European trading, New York futures are down 0.8% to $4,388 a troy ounce. "Gold remains caught between geopolitical and safe-haven support on one side and restrictive US monetary policy on the other, with the outlook for inflation and the pace of additional Fed hikes likely to remain the key drivers," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. Oil prices are down 2% on Monday on easing concerns over disruptions to Saudi pipeline flows despite attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels. But growing expectations of a global cycle of interest-rate increases are weighing on gold, as higher rates make the precious metal less attractive relative to interest-bearing assets. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0145 ET - Weather phenomenon El Nino is starting to make its mark on agriculture production, with the peak of the impact expected in the first quarter of 2027, analysts at J.P. Morgan say in a note. El Nino in 2026 has been intensifying rapidly, and the analysts say that risk premiums could evolve across exposed agriculture commodity prices through the end of the year and start of next year. More clarity will come when harvests ramp up, as the hit on production comes to light, they say. (aimee.look@wsj.com)
2329 ET - Supply disruptions are rippling through several commodity markets, and could lead to higher prices should demand hold firm, Jefferies says. In copper, severe storms in Chile have significantly affected mine production, says the bank. In thermal coal, a lack of rain in Indonesia is leading to less supply for the seaborne market, it says. "Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East is also impacting supply chains in the sector," Jefferies says. London Metal Exchange 3-month copper is up 0.1% at $14,535 a metric ton. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2318 ET - Iron ore prices are higher in early Asian trading. Overall iron-ore shipments are continuing a seasonal upward trend, remaining at relatively high levels, according to Nanhua Futures analysts in a commentary. Ahead of the upcoming long holiday in China, steel mills are actively building up inventory, they note. The most-traded iron-ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.1% higher at CNY722.0 a ton. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)
2258 ET - Palm oil rises in Asian trading thanks to bargain hunting. Weather concerns continue to support prices, with fire hotspots, haze and low water levels threatening plantation operations in Indonesia's palm-growing regions, AmInvestment Bank says in a note. Technical analysis suggests crude palm oil futures have a bearish-to-sideways bias, while declines in rival oils and crude oil may weigh on sentiment, it adds. It sees resistance at 4,960 ringgit a ton and support at 4,850 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is up 8 ringgit at 4,906 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2235 ET - Ramelius Resources' FY 2027 and 2028 production outlook is moderately below expectations, says Euroz Hartleys. However, that is offset by lower-than-expected operating costs "and an exceptional forward outlook in FY29 and FY30," the broker says. Rising free cash flow and falling capital expenditure should bolster capacity for additional dividends and share buybacks, says Euroz Hartleys. "We continue to be confident that RMS' superior cash flow outlook against its peers will result in a share price re-rate over FY27 as investors start to look toward future cashflows," it says. The broker keeps a buy recommendation and A$5.04/share price target. The stock is up 6.4% at A$3.81. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2228 ET - Copper prices are higher in early Asia trade, supported by expectations of tightening supply and improving demand, Everbright Securities analysts write in a note. Domestic copper inventories remain low, while global copper mine supply remains constrained, they add. Spot treatment charges have also fallen to fresh lows, pointing to continued tightness in the concentrate market, they say. Investors are monitoring U.S. copper tariff policy and its potential impact on global trade flows, they add. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.1% at $14,540.50 a ton.
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