The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1925 ET - Increasing numbers of Australian mortgage brokers see ANZ as the major bank competing hardest for business, Macquarie analysts say. Pointing to the results of Macquarie's annual survey of Australian mortgage brokers, the analysts say there has been a 42% on-year rise in the number of brokers who call out ANZ as the most competitive. Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank are at the bottom of the list, the analysts say in a note. ANZ is perceived to have become significantly more competitive on pricing and offers, but they wonder whether the lender is buying share and see risk of revenue attrition in fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2028. The analysts add that the importance to customers of borrowing power has risen sharply amid rising interest rates and changes to property related tax breaks. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
1913 ET - CBA now estimates that global oil markets have 5 to 10 weeks before oil and refined product inventories deplete. That compares with estimates of closer to 15 to 20 weeks just two weeks ago. Inventory depletion raises the risk that Brent oil futures rise to $US150 per barrel, it adds. The leverage that Iran and their proxies have exerted via their control of key straits and their attack on Saudi Arabia's pipeline infrastructure has caused oil and refined product prices to surge and condensed the timeline for inventory depletion, says Vivek Dhar, economist at CBA. Dhar is now more confident that the U.S. will seek to make a deal with Iran. (james.glynn@wsj.com; @JamesGlynnWSJ)
1858 ET - Shopify plans to allow Meta's buzzy personal AI agent Muse to complete purchases on behalf of users with Shop Pay, its accelerated, one-tap checkout service. Deutsche Bank analysts say the companies' collaboration is further proof that leading AI platforms are integrating with Shopify's commerce infrastructure. "We believe the partnership helps refute the recent bear thesis that AI agents and personal shoppers could disintermediate Shopify and its large payments business," they say. The partnership shows the value of Shopify's structured product data, merchant connectivity, checkout and the underlying infrastructure required to complete an order, they say. Shares of Shopify close up 7.3%, at $137.92, on Monday. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1839 ET - Australian stocks look set to move higher in early trade, breaking out of their recent holding pattern. Local equities futures are up by 0.3% ahead of Tuesday's session, indicating that the S&P/ASX 200 will follow major U.S. indices higher. The Australian benchmark index finished flat in each of its last two sessions, and is down by 2.8% so far in September. Strength in shares of the so-called magnificent seven tech stocks helped drive U.S. indices higher. The Nasdaq Composite to close at a record. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked 0.7% higher. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)
1539 ET - Uber Technologies likely has several years before robotaxis materially dent its share of the U.S. mobility market, given the ride-hailing company's rapid growth in sparse markets, BofA Securities analysts say in a note. The analysts expect Waymo, Tesla and Zoox to rapidly scale their production and autonomous vehicle fleets over the next three years, forecasting they will make up 5% of bookings by 2028. The true acceleration in AV rollout could come in 2029, when Tesla could have a significant ramp in AV deployments given growing cybercab production capacity, while Uber has a goal of being the global AV trips leader by that year, they say. (kelly.cloonan@wsj.com)
1434 ET - Truist analysts expect that Meta's new AI assistant, Muse, will add $28.5 billion in incremental revenue by 2030 under a base case scenario. They say in a note that Muse represents "the clearest attempt yet to build a non-ad revenue stream to complement its ad juggernaut and show ROI against its large CapEx." Meta surges 12% after the app to access the AI agent reached No. 1 in Apple's App Store. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1423 ET - The recovery in Canada's home resale market looks to be losing steam and activity remains low by historical standards, National Bank's Daren King and Evelyne Gosselin say. Sales fell 0.7% on-month in August, snapping a five-month streak of increases. King and Gosselin say a major headwind looms. Canadian and U.S. bond yields have surged since the start of the Iran war, yet mortgage rates haven't fully kept pace which has significantly squeezed lenders' margins. A rise in fixed-rate mortgage rates is therefore highly likely in the coming weeks, the pair argue. And sooner or later rising financing costs will weigh on affordability and undermine an already precarious recovery, unless geopolitical or trade tensions ease, they say. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)
1416 ET - Meta is making the right strategic bet by emphasizing trust in Muse's pitch, Truist analysts say in a note, pointing out that the consequences of AI agents making mistakes or eschewing instructions can be high. Still, they say, the company's reputation might make the pitch challenging. "Muse asks consumers to trust Meta with more personal data than social media ever did, and it arrived twelve days after Meta agreed to an $18 billion settlement with 29 states over social media harms to children," they say. "For a product whose entire pitch is trust, this is not the most favorable launch context." (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)
1353 ET - Cracker Barrel's year-over-year visit declines have narrowed, with weekly trends now running roughly in line with the overall full-service restaurant category, says R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai in a note. Foot traffic was down more than 12% last December from a year ago, but in August, visits were only down 3.4% versus a year ago, according to Placer.ai data. "The trajectory suggests consumers have moved past last year's rebrand and are responding to the brand bringing back past menu favorites, introducing new limited-time offers, and leaning harder into value," Hottovy says. Cracker Barrel is slated to report F4Q results Wednesday. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1350 ET - Darden Restaurants' full-year outlook still looks achievable, Baird analysts say in a research note. Despite concerns that rising gas prices will cause a consumer spending pullback, the analysts say they haven't seen any signs of softer casual dining trends. "We believe Darden is well positioned to sustain healthy comp growth in a range of economic scenarios," they say. The analysts note, though, that they aren't expecting Darden's management team to quantity quarter-to-date trends. Instead, management is more likely to express its confidence in the resilience of the casual-dining occasion. The owner of LongHorn Steakhouse and Olive Garden is scheduled to report quarterly results Thursday. (connor.hart@wsj.com)
1328 ET - The AI trade is continuing to find strength with chip makers gaining strongly. Meta is also up 10% helped by the popularity of its Muse AI agent, the most downloaded free iPhone app in the U.S., according to Sensor Tower. The ubiquity of AI has prompted questions about liability, with the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic signaling that the U.S. government may need to take an active role in regulation. However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says on CNBC, that he doesn't agree. "What did they try to do last week? It was, 'Well there's a 10% chance that we could destroy the world, but we want the government to give us a liability shield.' That's good business for them, bad business for the American people." (patrick.sheridan@wsj.com)
1250 ET - Abu Dhabi leads major Gulf stocks lower, with its benchmark index falling 1.6%, while Saudi Arabia's Tadawul All Share Index declines 0.6%. The Dubai Financial Market General Index and Qatar's QE Index each edge up 0.1%. Abu Dhabi's sharper decline is partly index-driven, as heavyweight International Holding Company falls 4.6%, reversing much of Friday's 4.8% rally and weighing heavily on the benchmark, says Milad Azar, market analyst at XTB MENA. Broader weakness reflects risk reduction amid heightened regional uncertainty, while differences in market structure and positioning are driving divergence across Gulf markets, he says.
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