Australia's August Underlying Inflation Print to Strengthen Case for November Rate Hike, BofA Securities Says

Australia's trimmed mean inflation is expected to rise 0.4% month over month in August, which would strengthen the case for an interest rate increase in November on top of a hike anticipated in September, BofA Securities said in a Thursday note.

The trimmed mean print, which is the central bank's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to jump 3.7% year over year, with BofA flagging housing and market services inflation as components to focus on.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the investment banking firm expects the headline consumer price index to increase by 0.9% month over month and 4.1% year over year in August, driven by a rebound in fuel prices.

Higher oil prices along with the end of the fuel excise cut probably added 51 basis points to headline inflation for the month, it said.

"Housing inflation will be in focus given new dwelling costs rose strongly in the second quarter reflecting input cost pressures," BofA Securities said. It added, however, that soft housing demand should limit builders' ability to pass through higher costs.