Below are the most important global events likely to affect FX and bond markets in the week starting September 28.
U.S. jobs data for September will be the key highlight in the coming week as investors seek to gauge the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in October, which would mark a second consecutive increase.
In Europe, eurozone inflation data will attract attention. In Asia, China's PMI reading and a central bank decision in Australia are the main events.
Market participants will stay focused on the global bond selloff and fluctuations in energy prices as the Middle East conflict drives up economic costs across the region.
U.S.
U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for September are due on Friday and could give a key indication of whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand a back-to-back increase in interest rates.
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point as expected in September following a sharp rise in oil prices due to high uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East. The central bank also signaled the potential for a further increase.
With recent purchasing managers' surveys revealing unexpectedly strong U.S. private-sector activity, investors have ramped up their expectations that the Fed could raise rates again next month. Money markets recently priced a 64% chance of a back-to-back hike on Oct. 28, LSEG data showed.
"There are two key reports that will largely determine what the Fed decides to do, with the first--the September jobs report--due on Friday," said ING economist James Knightley in a note. The next key data release will be September inflation figures, due Oct. 14, he said.
The jobs data should be sufficiently solid to "keep an October rate hike in play," Knightley said. They will follow very strong jobs data for August.
Other evidence of the health of the U.S. jobs market will be provided ahead of Friday's data, with JOLTS job openings data for August due Tuesday, followed by ADP private payrolls figures for September on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims on Thursday.
Another key piece of data will be PCE inflation data for August on Wednesday, since this is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. New methodological changes to these price indexes might lower the annual changes of prior data, analysts said. This will come alongside the final estimate of second-quarter GDP.
Other data include the Conference Board consumer confidence index for September on Tuesday, which will provide an indication of the health of the U.S. consumer. August factory orders are due on Friday.
Canada
Canadian gross domestic product data for July will be released Tuesday. This follows recent figures showing a larger-than-expected 1.1% on-month fall in retail sales during July.
Markets will be assessing the likelihood that the Bank of Canada could raise interest rates in the coming months, especially if energy prices stay elevated. Money markets price more than four rate hikes from the BOC over the next year, LSEG data showed.
Eurozone
Flash estimate consumer price inflation data for September will be firmly in focus in the coming week.
Data from Spain are due Tuesday, then from France, Italy and Germany on Wednesday, and from the eurozone as a whole on Friday.
Investors will be looking to see whether elevated energy prices are feeding through into other areas of the economy via core inflation, which so far has remained relatively unimpacted by the turmoil in the Middle East.
"Eyes will once again be on whether signs of second-round effects are kicking in," ING economist Bert Colijn said in a note.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates at its September meeting. Money markets price up to four further quarter-point increases over the coming year, LSEG data showed.
Eurozone business and consumer surveys for September are due on Tuesday. Other data include manufacturing PMI figures for Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the eurozone on Thursday. Unemployment data for September from the eurozone are released on Thursday.
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will appear at the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs on Monday.
Belgium will hold an auction Monday, followed by Italy on Tuesday. Germany will tap the August 2036 Bund on Wednesday, while Spanish and French auctions are due on Thursday.
The Netherlands will launch a new January 2048-dated bond, or DSL, on Tuesday via a Dutch Direct Auction.
U.K.
Investors will parse U.K. data in the coming week as they assess prospects that the Bank of England could raise interest rates in November, particularly if energy prices remain elevated.
Revised second-quarter gross domestic product data are due Wednesday, followed by the final estimate of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index for September on Thursday. Tuesday will also see the release of Bank of England data on mortgage lending and consumer credit for August.
Markets will likely keep a close eye on the Labour Party conference at the start of the week, where Treasury Chief John Healey will speak Monday and Prime Minister Andy Burnham on Tuesday. U.K. public finances are stretched and any jitters ahead of the Oct. 28 budget could cause U.K. government-bond yields to rise.
The U.K. will sell government bonds maturing in 2036 on Tuesday.
Sweden
Sweden will hold a bond auction on Wednesday.
Switzerland
Swiss consumer-price inflation data for September are due for release on Thursday.
This comes after the Swiss National Bank recently left interest rates on hold and said nothing to suggest that rates could increase over the coming months. "Monetary policy is appropriate to keep inflation within the range consistent with price stability and supports economic development," the SNB said.
The Swiss franc has fallen sharply as a result due to monetary-policy divergence between Switzerland and other major economies.
Nomura analysts expect that the SNB will leave interest rates at zero percent until at least the end of 2027.
"The SNB only raised its medium-term inflation forecast slightly...suggesting the need to increase rates may yet be some time away," they said.
Japan
With the timing of the Bank of Japan's next interest-rate increase in focus, eyes will be on the central bank's Tankan corporate sentiment survey on Thursday. Later that day, focus turns to the BOJ's summary of opinions from its September meeting, where it raised its policy rate to 1.25%.
Industrial production and retail sales data for August on Wednesday give another piece of the economic picture, followed by September consumer inflation figures for the Tokyo metropolitan area and the August jobs report on Friday.
As global bond markets reel from inflation fears and rate-hike expectations, eyes will be on Japanese government bond yields, which have risen in tandem with their counterparts in other advanced economies, hitting multi-year highs.
Any fresh signaling from officials on the yen will capture attention too as intervention chatter resurfaced following another bout of currency weakness.
On Monday, the BOJ is scheduled to conduct outright purchases of Japanese government bonds maturing in one to three years, 10 to 25 years, and inflation-linked debt.
The Ministry of Finance is slated to sell 40-year government bonds on Tuesday, followed by an auction of two-year debt on Wednesday.
China
A holiday-shortened week in China features PMI gauges and industrial profit data.
The PMIs are largely expected to show improvement in the manufacturing and services sectors. Economists will also look to the data for indications of business confidence and price pressures as the artificial-intelligence boom keeps lifting exports and the Middle East war keeps driving up input costs.
ING economists expect the official purchasing managers' index on Wednesday to signal a slight recovery across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing, projecting headline readings of 50.1 and 49.2, respectively.
The private RatingDog PMI, which has generally outperformed lately because of its more export-oriented sample, is out the same day, ING noted.
Monday's industrial profit figures for August are expected to show moderation in corporate earnings, in line with the trend over the past three months despite overall improvement compared with prior years, ING said.
Australia, New Zealand
Australia-watchers will focus on a policy meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday and Tuesday, where the central bank is expected to announce a fourth rise in interest rates since the start of the year.
Senior RBA officials have been warning over the last few months about upside inflation risks, citing factors like the unresolved war in the Middle East.
The RBA has joined other major central banks in tightening policy recently, with economists expecting it to keep the door open to a further hike in November.
If the RBA delivers a further increase before the end of the year, the official cash rate will reach its highest level since 2008.
All eyes will be on the press conference by RBA Governor Michele Bullock, and the vote split from the bank's nine-member board.
Inflation data for August on Wednesday are expected to confirm the RBA's fears about rising consumer price pressures.
Inflation has lingered at levels well above the central bank's target of 2.5% for a long time, and officials are now indicating they can no longer afford not to act.
South Korea
South Korea is scheduled to release September trade and inflation data on Thursday and Friday, respectively, with the figures likely to reaffirm robust chip-led exports and elevated price growth.
Strong semiconductor shipments likely continued to drive exports, with the trade surplus expected to hit a monthly record, Citigroup economist Jin-Wook Kim said.
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