U.S. Recession Indicator Might be a False Signal, Oxford Economics Says
Dow Jones09-25
0158 GMT - Oxford Economics says its U.S. Business Cycle Indicator has dropped into recessionary territory, as higher energy prices squeeze real incomes and slowing immigration weigh on trend job growth. Still, it is questioning the data as a genuine recession signal because productivity growth is strong and the wealth effect is boosting consumer spending. Households aren't trading down to cheaper goods, a typical response in the lead-up to and aftermath of a recession, it adds. The artificial-intelligence build-out, elevated profit margins and tax cuts are also supporting investment, even as tariff and policy uncertainties persist, it says.
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