The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0745 GMT - London's miners gain after oil prices ease. Brent crude and WTI fall as investors assess the likelihood that U.S.-Iran diplomatic efforts could reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Miners are some of the world's largest consumers of diesel and higher prices eat into margins. High oil prices also raise the prospect of interest rate rises to combat inflation. This would hurt investment and consumer sentiment, and drag on demand for mined minerals and metals. With sentiment improved, Glencore rises 2% while Anglo American gains 1.3%. Antofagasta is 0.9% higher. Precious metal miners Fresnillo, Hochschild Mining and Endeavour Mining all gain over 1.2%. Brent crude futures are down 1.1% to $105.45 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate falls 1.9% to $92.85 a barrel.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
0430 GMT - Rising power demand and low coal inventories at Indian power plants are poised to support Coal India's volumes and improve its earnings trajectory, Jefferies analysts Sagar Sahu and Nitij Mangal say in a note. India's coal inventories have fallen to seven days versus a 10-year average of 15 days, while higher global coal prices could also support domestic e-auction realizations. Jefferies estimates that Coal India's annualized earnings will grow 6% over FY26-FY29 following a 12% decline in FY24-FY26. Jefferies retains a buy rating on the stock with a target price of 500 Indian rupees. Shares are up 0.6% at 424.35 Indian rupees. (venkat.pr@wsj.com)
0416 GMT - Mining shares and mined commodities tend to outperform when the yield curve steepens, and underperform when it flattens, says Jefferies. "This holds true across physical copper, gold, silver, and platinum, as well as copper and gold equities," the bank says. By comparison, the S&P 500 tends to perform best when there is no clear trend, it says. Jefferies says this poses a risk for the mining sector ahead. "We seem to have exited the bull steepening of the past two years and may be heading for bear flattening, where yields rise and spreads compress," it says. "History suggests a headwind for mining, with copper faring best" and iron ore the worst, says Jefferies. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0205 GMT - Delivering new, large-scale copper supply will likely be more costly, slower and riskier than anticipated, says Jefferies. That justifies higher copper prices and reinforces the case for miners to buy copper growth, rather than building new mines, in some instances, it says. In a review of major projects, the bank found many failed to deliver the production volumes expected when a final investment decision was made. A "combination of capex inflation and production underperformance suggests that industry forecasts may systematically overestimate the amount of copper supply likely to be delivered from greenfield projects and underestimate the true incentive price to build new mines," Jefferies says. "The implications for copper supply are significant" and support premiums increasingly being assigned to some operating mines, brownfield expansions and "derisked" development assets, it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1800 GMT - Gold futures extend losses to four sessions as the market remains pressured by rising U.S. yields and dollar gains. "The near-term outlook for gold remains cautious," Linh Tran of XS.com says in a note. "As long as the 10-year Treasury yield remains above 5%, the U.S. dollar stays strong, and markets continue to assign a high probability to an October Fed rate increase, gold's recovery attempts may remain relatively limited." Front month gold settles down 0.4% in New York at $4,263.00 a troy ounce. Silver falls 1.4% to $63.457 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1745 GMT - Fitch Ratings increases some 2026 price assumptions for fertilizers, reflecting higher ingredient costs as a result of the conflict in Iran. The agency raises ammonia price assumptions due to higher year-to-date pricing and elevated LNG costs. Fitch also raises assumptions for diammonium phosphate prices for 2026-2027, to reflect rising sulphur prices. Fitch reduces 2026 urea price assumptions to reflect a recent decline in prices due to increasing Chinese exports.
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