1356 ET - Long-term yields are being driven up by forces that are out of the Federal Reserve's control, CIFC's Natalia Lojevsky says in a note. Last week's rate hike changed the Treasury curve but not the level, Lojevsky says. The heavy supply of Treasurys on the market, oil being higher than $100 a barrel, an expansive AI infrastructure buildout and a global bond selloff are now dictating yield levels, she says. The recent 5-year Treasury auction drew the weakest demand since 2018, showing that buyers are getting pickier about duration even at high levels, Lojevsky says. "The risks to yields skew higher, and a quarter-point hike doesn't change that," she says.
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