As Micron Technology gets set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on Wednesday afternoon, it remains in uncharted territory. Pushed by demand for memory and storage chips for artificial-intelligence data centers, sales growth and profit margins are at all-time highs.
But what hasn't changed is Wall Street's skepticism about the durability of this unprecedented moment. Fiscal year 2027 began earlier this month, and Wall Street analysts expect $160 in adjusted earnings per share, which puts its forward price/earnings ratio at a low 6.7, well under the S&P 500's 18.5 P/E. Single-digit P/Es are nothing new for Micron.
The reason is that memory is one of the most cyclical parts of the cyclical chip industry. There are wild swings in inventories and prices, which are reflected in fluctuating sales growth and gross profit margin for Micron.
The old Wall Street maxim is that investors should buy these stocks when things go from bleak to merely terrible, and then sell when revenue growth and gross margin are peaking. Many tech investors still nurse the scars from a time when they mistimed the cycle, and they have one foot out the door during an upcycle.
For the fourth quarter, analysts project sales growth of 354% to $51 billion, and an eye-popping gross margin of 85%, all records for Micron. For those cautious investors, it doesn't take much imagination to think these are peak numbers. Adjusted EPS is seen at $31.72, also a record.
Data center investment is stretching past a trillion dollars a year, and all those AI servers require a lot of high-end memory and storage chips. There remains a severe shortage and prices have rocketed up at the fastest pace ever. The undersupply has bled into consumer tech, where 2026 price hikes have become the norm.
In the past, upcycles tended to end when new factories opened, filling up depleted inventories. But that's been taking longer than usual. Because the down-cycle of 2022 and 2023 was so severe, Micron and the other memory giants-SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics-were reluctant to commit capital to expanding manufacturing capacity after the AI boom began with ChatGPT's release in November 2022. New factories are not due to open until the middle of 2027, with more slated for the following years.
Now, Micron and its peers are using their unusual market power to try to break the cycle.
Micron is getting customers into five-year supply agreements, much more than the typical one-year deal. Unlike the usual memory contracts, these deals include a price floor and a very high ceiling, binding commitments, as well as customer deposits.
Last quarter, Micron devoted much of the scripted portion of the earnings call to detailing these agreements, which it hopes will soften the eventual down-cycle. There were 16 customer contracts that covered roughly 20% of its memory chip volume and a third of storage chips.
The company is betting that less cyclical financials will lead to a rerating from its single-digit P/E.
But Micron may have to show that new pattern before it gets any credit. The day after the last earnings report, analysts raced each other to raise their fiscal year 2027 financial estimates and price targets, and the stock was up 16%. But shares have since faded, as the usual skepticism has bled back in.
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