The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0805 ET - Oil prices retreat on signs of recovering crude exports from major Middle Eastern producers, with Brent crude below $105 a barrel. In afternoon European trading, front-month Brent futures for November are down 1% to $104.19 a barrel, while the December contract falls 1.4% to $96.49 a barrel. The U.S. oil gauge WTI is down 1.5% to $91.18 a barrel. In September, crude exports from the Gulf region reached 80% of prewar levels, according to data from Kpler. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia resumed exporting oil via its East-West pipeline after repairing damage caused by drone strikes, pointing to an improving supply situation. "The fact that oil prices remain so high is likely due to market participants' scepticism that, given the tense atmosphere between the parties to the conflict, this high level of market supply will be sustainable," says Barbara Lambrecht, commodity analyst at Commerzbank. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0609 ET - Palm oil prices ended lower, tracking losses of competing vegetable oils, said David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Continued concerns over rising inventories in Malaysia amid improving production also weighed on palm oil's prices, Ng said. He pegs the support and resistance levels for palm oil at 4,550 ringgit a ton and 4,700 ringgit a ton, respectively. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery ended 38 ringgit lower at 4,626 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0508 ET - Short-term price gains in gold and silver will likely be limited as long as the Federal Reserve "remains in inflation-fighting mode," Julius Baer's Carsten Menke writes. Rising U.S. bond yields have pressured the precious metals' prices, which Menke says is due to the real-yield component. This likely reflects the U.S. economy's strength, which could fuel fears of further Fed rate hikes, says the next generation research head. Still, precious metals' decline could be limited, as he expects the Fed to raise rates less frequently than currently priced into money markets. A higher rate environment typically weighs on nonyielding assets like gold. Spot gold rises 0.7% to $4,140.47 a troy ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)
0339 ET - Silver remains under pressure after Monday's selloff, with futures around $61 an ounce. Higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar are weighing on the non-yielding metal by increasing its opportunity cost and making it more expensive for overseas buyers. Expectations for another U.S. rate hike in October are adding to the pressure. However, the longer-term supply outlook remains supportive, says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets, with silver heading for a sixth consecutive annual deficit and limited mine-supply growth. Industrial demand remains a key risk, particularly as China's industrial profit growth slowed, while silver's use in solar, electronics and manufacturing leaves it sensitive to global economic conditions. "If yields soften and the dollar weakens, silver could find support quickly, but if both stay elevated, the market may continue testing lower technical levels before any durable recovery develops," Aslam says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0339 ET - Copper falls in early European trading, with three-month LME futures down 0.5% to $14,407 a metric ton. The metal is being pulled between "weaker near-term macro demand signals and increasingly supportive policy and supply fundamentals," says Naeem Aslam from Zaye Capital Markets. China's planned infrastructure spending could support demand, but property investment remains weak. On the supply side, slower Chinese refined output, maintenance shutdowns and potential Chilean mine strikes are tightening the market, while inventories remain low. Meanwhile, higher global yields and a stronger dollar add to pressure. Traders now await upcoming Chinese and U.S. economic data for more clues on demand trends. "The direction of copper will increasingly depend on whether real Chinese infrastructure demand begins absorbing constrained supply faster than higher rates and a strong dollar suppress commodity risk appetite," Aslam says. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0319 ET - Gold prices edge higher in early trading, but remain below $4,200 a troy ounce after multidecade-high U.S. Treasury yields and rising crude triggered a selloff on Monday. New York futures are up 0.1% to $4,173.30 an ounce, down nearly 5% on the week. "The metal edged only marginally higher, staying close to its weakest since early August, as expectations that the Federal Reserve would keep rates higher for longer sapped appetite for the non-yielding asset," analysts at IG say. Traders currently see a 72.5% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. Focus is now shifting to a batch of U.S. economic figures, including consumer confidence and job openings data due later on Tuesday. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
0215 ET - Gold's near-term bias remains downward, based on the daily chart, says Quek Ser Leang of UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research. While the precious metal's recent sharp drop could spark a rebound, the 21-day exponential moving average has crossed below the 55-day EMA, indicating the near-term bias stays downward, the senior technical strategist says. The ascending daily trendline near $4,000 an ounce is likely to provide firm support. Key resistance is pegged at $4,320 an ounce, near where the 21-day and 55-day EMAs are clustered, the strategist says in a report. Spot gold is 0.8% higher at $4,145.32 an ounce. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
0116 ET - UBS upgrades its long-term forecast on iron ore to US$93/metric ton, from US$85/ton before. As a result, the bank raises share-price targets on miners including BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue. Its long-term price forecast--which is 12% above consensus--reflects a new phase for iron-ore demand, as China pivots to manufacturing and exports from construction, and steel demand from the Global South rises, UBS says. "The rise of the Global South and China's manufacturing [and] export industries should more than offset China's construction steel demand decline, resulting in global steel demand growing through 2035," it says. UBS raises its target on BHP to A$61/share from A$59/share prior. Its target on Rio Tinto increases to A$178/share from A$177/share. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2241 ET - Palm oil falls in Asian trading, weighed by overnight declines in soybean oil on the Chicago Board of Trade amid cautious market sentiment, says David Ng, trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. CPO prices are expected to remain rangebound given the lack of a fresh catalyst, he adds. Ng pegs resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton and support at 4,550 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery is down 3 ringgit at 4,661 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)
2217 ET - Copper prices are higher in early Asian trade, as investors weigh expectations for tighter monetary policy against a still-supportive physical market, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. Tight mine supply and widening import losses continue to provide a floor for prices, while low domestic inventories offer some support to spot copper, they say. However, elevated prices have curbed downstream buying, with preholiday restocking largely nearing completion and demand yet to show a meaningful seasonal recovery, they say. Copper prices might remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term, with traders likely to stay cautious ahead of China's weeklong National Day holiday. The benchmark three-month LME contract is 0.2% higher at $14,444.50 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2208 ET - Iron ore prices fall in early Asian trade. Iron ore shipments to China rose even as arrivals from Australia and Brazil were slightly slower, Xinhu Futures analysts write in a note. Chinese steel output fell further while steel mills' profits continued to weaken. Investors are watching inventories, they say. The combination of weaker steel production and narrowing mill margins is keeping demand expectations subdued, while relatively firm shipments are adding to near-term supply pressure, they say. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 0.6% lower at 700.5 yuan a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
2152 ET - At first glance, Pantoro Gold's FY 2026 fiscal results are better than expected, says MA Moelis Australia. It attributes the beat to significantly lower exploration expenditure and a larger reversal of share-based payments, among other things. The company's annual mineral resource and ore reserve update is positive, with resources and reserves rising after depletion, it says. MA says the annual result "reinforced PNR's cash-generating potential." It says "the early FY27 production update is more encouraging, however, sustained delivery is still required to rebuild credibility." MA has a buy rating and 3.65 Australian dollar target on the stock. Shares are up 2.1% at A$2.91.
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