MARKET MOVEMENTS:
--Brent crude oil is up 2.7% at $98.79 a barrel.
--European benchmark gas is up 3.85% at 72.10 euros a megawatt-hour.
--Copper futures are up 0.29% at $14,480 a metric ton.
--Gold futures are up 0.58% at $4,202.40 a troy ounce.
TOP STORY:
Major Wall Street Banks Lift Oil-Price Forecast, Survey Shows
Major Wall Street banks have raised their oil-price forecasts for this year and early next, as stalled efforts to end the Iran war leave the market vulnerable to fresh supply shocks despite a rebound in Middle East crude exports.
A survey compiled by The Wall Street Journal--including projections from Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley--puts Brent crude at an average of $90.22 a barrel in the fourth quarter, while West Texas Intermediate is seen at $85.47 a barrel. Both are sharply above previous estimates of $78.92 and $74.62 a barrel, respectively.
OTHER STORIES:
Oil Prices Rebound as Middle East Risks Persist
Oil prices reversed earlier losses as tensions, supply risks and shipping disruptions in the Middle East persist, even as Persian Gulf crude exports continued to recover.
December Brent crude futures rose 2.6% to $98.66 a barrel on Wednesday, while front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 2.2% to $89.18 a barrel. Both contracts had extended Tuesday's losses earlier in the session before turning higher.
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Cal-Maine Swings to 1Q Loss as Lower Egg Prices Hurt Sales
Cal-Maine Foods swung to a loss in its fiscal first quarter as sales fell, hurt by continually low egg prices.
The egg producer on Wednesday posted a loss of $58.6 million for its quarter ended Aug. 29, compared with a profit of $199.3 million in last year's comparable period.
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Middle East Crude Oil Exports Back at Prewar Levels, Analysts Say
Middle East crude oil exports are back at prewar levels as the region's major crude producers ramp up supplies through alternative pipelines, ports and ship-to-ship transfers to navigate disruptions due to the Iran conflict, analysts said.
Flows through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints, were severely curtailed after the war between the U.S. and Iran started on Feb. 28. It forced Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, and other major Gulf producers such as the United Arab Emirates to reroute crude through pipelines and alternative ports that bypassed the strait.
MARKET TALKS:
Corn and Soybeans Higher as Rainfall Slows Harvesting -- Market Talk
1043 ET - Corn and soybean futures on the CBOT are holding higher, this as rainfall continues to slow down the progress of farmers harvesting crops grown this spring and summer, says Joe Davis of Futures International in a note. "Rainfall associated with the remnants of Hurricane Polo is expected to affect a broad area from the Southwest through the Plains and into the Midwest," says Davis. "Excessive precipitation and localized flooding could keep producers out of fields and extend harvest delays, particularly across Iowa and surrounding western Corn Belt areas." Corn rises 0.4%, soybeans are up 0.8%, and wheat is down 0.5%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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Hogs Resume Downward Momentum -- Market Talk
1022 ET - Lean hog futures are sliding again, with the most-active contract on the CME down 0.8% to 69.175 cents a pound. Futures were higher on Tuesday--suggesting that it may have been an aberration, not the start of a trend reversal. Fundamentals still point to more-than-adequate pork supply, says StoneX in a note. "We do have another seasonally larger slaughter and production rate on tap this week, where through two days our total harvest is up 30K head on last week's pace," says the firm. Live cattle futures rise 1.1% to $2.23225 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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Oil Climbs as Middle East Tensions Remain High -- Market Talk
1334 GMT - Oil prices rebound as tensions in the Middle East remain high despite a recent pickup in exports that calmed supply fears. Brent crude November futures were up 0.9% to $103.52 a barrel, while the more-active December contract climbs 2.3% to $98.37 a barrel. Front-month West Texas Intermediate traded 1.8% higher at $90.99 a barrel. Brent is headed for a monthly gain of around 16%, while WTI is on track for a 9% rise. The U.K. Maritime Trade Operations said Wednesday that it received a report that a tanker transiting through the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an unknown projectile. Meanwhile, in Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held an emergency meeting with security officials over the incident involving a FlyDubai flight that made an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia after one of the pilots was reportedly stabbed. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Grains Higher Ahead of Stocks Report -- Market Talk
0928 ET - CBOT grain futures rise, ahead of the next quarterly stocks report from the USDA. The move higher is last-minute positioning before the report's release, says Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. "No major surprises are expected but soybean stocks remain reasonably tight and dependent on a strong crop," says Zeller. Analysts surveyed by WSJ forecast corn stocks through September 1 at 1.92 billion bushels, soybean stocks at 323 million bushels, and wheat stocks are seen at 1.85 billion bushels. Corn stocks are expected to be higher than this time last year, while soybean and wheat stocks are seen lower. CBOT corn rises 0.5%, soybeans up 0.6%, and wheat climbs 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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Crude Oil Bouncing Back -- Market Talk
0924 ET - Crude oil futures are higher after trading lower Tuesday. Reports of potential sanctions relief being offered to Russia were a factor dragging oil down, says the Hightower Report in a note. "President Trump later denied those reports, which helped crude oil regain strength early in today's action," says the firm. Oil traders will also be looking for the EIA's weekly report, which analysts expect will show decreased inventories for U.S. crude oil and distillates. WTI crude is up 1.1% to $90.32 a barrel, while Brent crude futures rise 0.6% to $103.19 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
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Gold Rises But Still Headed for Monthly Loss -- Market Talk
1313 GMT - Gold prices extend gains, but remain on track for a monthly loss of more than 6% as investors await U.S. inflation data for more cues on the Federal Reserve's interest-rate path. New York futures rise 1.6% to $4,245.20 a troy ounce. The rebound was supported by an easing dollar and falling U.S. Treasury yields after New York Fed President John Williams pushed back against expectations for an imminent follow-up Fed rate hike. "Attention now turns to September ADP employment and August personal spending and PCE inflation," says Fawad Razaqzada from Forex.com. "A stronger-than-expected core PCE reading could push October rate hike pricing higher again." (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)
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Palm Oil Ends Lower on Weak Export Demand -- Market Talk
1006 GMT - Palm oil closed lower in Asia, pressured by weaker export demand, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Malaysia's palm oil exports from Sept. 1-30 are estimated to have declined 29% on month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. Continued concerns over rising inventories in Malaysia could also have weighed on prices, Ng said. He pegs support for palm oil at 4,550 ringgit a ton and resistance at 4,700 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery ended 12 ringgit lower at 4,612 ringgit a ton.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)
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Glencore Remains Berenberg's Preferred Large-Cap Diversified Miner -- Market Talk
0738 GMT - Glencore continues to be Berenberg's preferred large-cap diversified mining stock. The London-listed miner has the most compelling organic copper growth story out of all its peers, Berenberg analysts write. The miner's trading division will continue to benefit this year from volatile energy markets, and it should also gain from elevated thermal coal prices, they add. Shares rise 1.5% to 559.60 pence.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
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Uranium Prices Could Hit $100 a Pound by Year-End -- Market Talk
0714 GMT - Uranium prices are heading higher over the medium term, Berenberg analysts write in a note. Uranium has a compelling outlook, which could push prices over $100 a pound by the end of the year, they say. Prices are currently around $90 a pound. Over the near term, new projects in Kazakhstan and Canada face risks that lead to a slower ramp-up of supply, they add. Demand is also set to grow as new nuclear reactors are rolled out, they add. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
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Mining Stocks Are Attractive Despite Complicated Geopolitical Backdrop -- Market Talk
0639 GMT - The long-term outlook for mining stocks is positive despite a complicated geopolitical environment, and investors should "buy-the-dip" when markets are volatile, Berenberg analysts say. Miners are at the start of a long-term bull cycle driven by a lack of new supply, resilient demand and low inventories. The analysts' preferred commodities remain uranium, copper and platinum group metals. Gold also remains attractive given complicated and volatile geopolitics, they add in a note. (adam.whittaker@wsj.com)
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Copper Prices Rise Amid Tight Supply -- Market Talk
0310 GMT - Copper prices are higher in early Asia trading as easing expectations for a near-term U.S. rate increase reduce some of the macro pressure on metals, Dongwu Futures analysts say in a note. Tight supply continues to provide fundamental support, the analysts say. On the supply side, the copper concentrate market remains tight, they add. Copper prices are likely to remain rangebound at elevated levels in the near term, they say. Tight supply supports prices while macro uncertainty limits the upside, they say. The three-month LME copper contract is up 0.3% at $14,485.00 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)
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Iron Ore Rises Ahead of Holidays -- Market Talk
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