The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0742 ET - Uranium Energy is making big leaps in its plans to build out its uranium supply in Canada and the U.S., but there are risks to its ambitious expansion plans. RBC's Andrew Wong notes that the company is ramping uranium production in Wyoming and Texas, developing the Roughrider project in Saskatchewan, and plans to build new uranium conversion capacity in the U.S. "We see the industrial logic, US-origin benefit, and need for more domestic conversion capacity," Wong says, but notes that building greenfield conversion in the U.S. comes with significant risks and plan details are currently limited. RBC initiates coverage on the stock with a sector perform rating with a speculative risk qualifier, and a price target of $10. Shares are down 20% year-to-date at $9.36. (adriano.marchese@wsj.com)
0604 ET - Glencore could beat its new marketing unit forecast this year given the current environment, RBC analyst Ben Davis writes. He cites volatility, supply chain disruption and refining margins. The miner and commodity trader raised its guidance for marketing adjusted EBIT this year to over $5 billion compared with previous guidance of around $4.9 billion. It also raised its longer-term guidance for the metric to between $2.8 billion and $4.2 billion from $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion. RBC estimates 2026 marketing EBIT of $5.4 billion compared with consensus of $5.18 billion. Davis adds that the more important driver for the stock is the multiple attached to a trading business. RBC has an outperform rating on the stock and 660 pence target price. Shares are up 1.7% at 554.50 pence, and 38% higher over the year-to-date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0238 ET - BofA Securities turns bullish on BHP, citing an improved outlook for copper prices. It raises its share-price target on BHP to 68 Australian dollars from A$65 and upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. That follows a 20% lift in its long-term copper price forecast to US$13,577/metric ton. BofA views a site visit to BHP's Australian copper operations in November as a key catalyst. "We expect the site visit to give the market greater confidence in the ramp-up of mined volumes," it says. Shares ended up 1.6% at A$61.21. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0053 ET - Lynas's planned acquisition of Meteoric Resources appears to be at least initially about securing heavy rare-earths supply for its expanding Malaysia refining plant, says UBS. The bank says the deal demonstrates the increased interest in Brazil for rare earths. It says it's "mindful the potential (risk and/or opportunity) for further LYC investment in the region, particularly around refining capacity." UBS trims its share-price target on Lynas to A$21.00 from A$22.50. That reflects the deal and capex required to develop Meteoric's Caldeira project, it says. The bank keeps a buy rating. Shares in Lynas are up 0.6% at A$12.72, after falling by 8.6% Thursday on the takeover news. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2022 ET - The economics of Liontown's Kathleen Valley--the first global large-scale, bulk underground lithium operation--don't look great, according to Jarden. It says that while "the cost base is still being established...it is much higher than consensus estimates reflect." The remarks follow updated project numbers alongside a final investment decision by Liontown. "While we hold the Kathleen Valley orebody in high regard (and equally LTR management for building a high-quality underground mine and processing plant), we have long questioned the economics of this highly capital-intensive extraction method for what is ultimately a low-grade, high-volume commodity," Jarden says. The bank has an underweight rating on the stock. It cuts its stock target to A$0.75 from A$0.88. Shares are up 5.1% at A$0.83, after losing 15% Thursday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2001 ET - Rio Tinto is the cleanest way to be long iron ore and cautious on copper while keeping exposure to growth in the base metal, Macquarie says. It upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral. "Rio is still iron-ore anchored (circa 50% of segment earnings for CY27), so it captures our view on a near-term recovery in the commodity, but it also has genuine, growing copper exposure," says the bank. Copper accounted for roughly 27% of group Ebitda in 2025, and could rise to about 36% by the end of the decade, it says. "Critically, it [Rio] has lagged BHP by circa 20% year to date, so investors buy iron ore leverage plus copper growth without paying BHP's copper 'tourist' premium," Macquarie says. It keeps a neutral rating on BHP. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
1948 ET - Greatland Resources gains a bull in Macquarie, which says the stock is now one of its key mid-cap picks in the Australian gold sector. The upgrade--to outperform from neutral--follows a weak share-price performance in recent months. "We think now could be an opportune time to revisit the investment thesis," says the bank, citing potential catalysts such as the possible sale of the O'Callaghans project and exploration updates at West Dome Underground. Still, Macquarie lowers its target to A$12.30/share from A$13.00/share. The bank cuts its 2027 gold-price forecasts, by 3% in U.S. dollar terms and 8% in Australian dollars. "Gold faces a less supportive macro backdrop, as higher real yields, sticky inflation and a stronger U.S. [dollar] increasingly challenge the rally," it says. Greatland ended Thursday at A$10.28.
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