The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.
0638 GMT - BofA Securities turns bullish on BHP, citing an improved outlook for copper prices. It raises its share-price target on BHP to 68 Australian dollars from A$65 and upgrades the stock to buy from neutral. That follows a 20% lift in its long-term copper price forecast to US$13,577/metric ton. BofA views a site visit to BHP's Australian copper operations in November as a key catalyst. "We expect the site visit to give the market greater confidence in the ramp-up of mined volumes," it says. Shares ended up 1.6% at A$61.21. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0453 GMT - Lynas's planned acquisition of Meteoric Resources appears to be at least initially about securing heavy rare-earths supply for its expanding Malaysia refining plant, says UBS. The bank says the deal demonstrates the increased interest in Brazil for rare earths. It says it's "mindful the potential (risk and/or opportunity) for further LYC investment in the region, particularly around refining capacity." UBS trims its share-price target on Lynas to A$21.00 from A$22.50. That reflects the deal and capex required to develop Meteoric's Caldeira project, it says. The bank keeps a buy rating. Shares in Lynas are up 0.6% at A$12.72, after falling by 8.6% Thursday on the takeover news. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0022 GMT - The economics of Liontown's Kathleen Valley--the first global large-scale, bulk underground lithium operation--don't look great, according to Jarden. It says that while "the cost base is still being established...it is much higher than consensus estimates reflect." The remarks follow updated project numbers alongside a final investment decision by Liontown. "While we hold the Kathleen Valley orebody in high regard (and equally LTR management for building a high-quality underground mine and processing plant), we have long questioned the economics of this highly capital-intensive extraction method for what is ultimately a low-grade, high-volume commodity," Jarden says. The bank has an underweight rating on the stock. It cuts its stock target to A$0.75 from A$0.88. Shares are up 5.1% at A$0.83, after losing 15% Thursday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0001 GMT - Rio Tinto is the cleanest way to be long iron ore and cautious on copper while keeping exposure to growth in the base metal, Macquarie says. It upgrades the stock to outperform from neutral. "Rio is still iron-ore anchored (circa 50% of segment earnings for CY27), so it captures our view on a near-term recovery in the commodity, but it also has genuine, growing copper exposure," says the bank. Copper accounted for roughly 27% of group Ebitda in 2025, and could rise to about 36% by the end of the decade, it says. "Critically, it [Rio] has lagged BHP by circa 20% year to date, so investors buy iron ore leverage plus copper growth without paying BHP's copper 'tourist' premium," Macquarie says. It keeps a neutral rating on BHP. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
2348 GMT - Greatland Resources gains a bull in Macquarie, which says the stock is now one of its key mid-cap picks in the Australian gold sector. The upgrade--to outperform from neutral--follows a weak share-price performance in recent months. "We think now could be an opportune time to revisit the investment thesis," says the bank, citing potential catalysts such as the possible sale of the O'Callaghans project and exploration updates at West Dome Underground. Still, Macquarie lowers its target to A$12.30/share from A$13.00/share. The bank cuts its 2027 gold-price forecasts, by 3% in U.S. dollar terms and 8% in Australian dollars. "Gold faces a less supportive macro backdrop, as higher real yields, sticky inflation and a stronger U.S. [dollar] increasingly challenge the rally," it says. Greatland ended Thursday at A$10.28. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)
0923 GMT - Indonesia could sustain its trade surplus through 2027, though it is expected to remain modest as imports continue to grow faster than exports, RHB economist Wong Xian Yong says in a note. Export growth is expected to strengthen gradually, supported by downstream metal and manufacturing shipments and higher prices of some commodities, he says. Coal exports will likely stay weak, while palm oil could benefit from higher domestic biodiesel demand. Broader market access, including the Indonesia-EU trade deal, could support export diversification from 2027, he adds. Greater oversight of strategic commodity exports is also expected to improve transparency without materially disrupting shipments, RHB says.
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