The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1435 ET - Lean hog futures settle up 1.7% to 70.075 cents a pound, snapping a two-day losing streak for the CME contract. Analysts say that recent losses in hogs came due to technical selling. But giving hog futures support is higher midday cutouts reported by the USDA. "A good indicator for pork would be to see loins and hams move up," says ADM Investor Services in a note. "They are cheap and should at least encourage export purchases." Live cattle futures close down 0.8% to $2.214 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1229 ET - CBOT corn futures are down 1.4% midday, leading row crop futures lower as fund traders are seen closing long positions that they hold in corn. Last Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed a net long position among managed money traders that's almost 415,000 contracts. This week's update may show sizable selling among these traders. "[Corn is] down on more long liquidation, a touch of harvest pressure, and forecasts for perfect harvest weather starting next week to last for two weeks," says Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Soybeans slide 0.6%, and wheat is down 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1100 ET - Next week's monthly WASDE report from the USDA may show higher yields for U.S. soybeans, says StoneX in its latest crop estimates. The firm says that it projects soybean yields at 54.1 bushels an acre, with production at 4.65 billion bushels. Both of these estimates would be above last month's USDA projections, and record-highs for U.S. soybeans. StoneX also adjusted its corn yield forecast to 182.1 bpa, down from the firm's previous forecast of 182.9 bpa but well above the 178.5 bpa the USDA projected last month. StoneX projects corn production at 16.12 billion bushels, which would be the second-largest crop in U.S. history. CBOT corn falls 0.5%, soybeans drop 0.2%, and wheat is up 0.4%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1047 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are down 0.6% in morning trade, fueled by dropping wholesale prices. Beef cutouts reported by the USDA, particularly Choice cutouts, are sliding -- with it falling $6 per hundredweight in the USDA's last report to $376.79 per cwt. "As packers work to make up for last week's lighter slaughter pace, increased production appears to be pressuring beef values," says StoneX in a note. Lean hog futures are up 0.9% early. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1023 ET - Michelin's non-tire business is experiencing negative growth and its recovery is disappointing, Bernstein analysts say. Sales for the French tire company's polymers business--which makes conveyor belts--was expected to turn a corner in the second half, but this is yet to materialize and is disappointing, the analysts write. Michelin's third-quarter group volumes are expected to come in "stable to slightly positive", according to the company. Bernstein has an outperform rating on the stock and a 38 euro price target. Shares are down 0.4% at 32.96 euros. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
1003 ET - Natural gas is down 0.3%, retreating under the $3 per-mmBtu mark after the EIA reported that in July, U.S. natural gas production reached a record high. The agency says that July production landed at 137 billion cubic feet a day, continuing the gradual and stable run-up in natural gas production seen since 2010. This new record replaces the record set after 5 months of new record-highs in 2025, says the EIA. Mild weather has been a factor pressing on natural gas futures today, with electrical power demand seen as limited. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0947 ET - Crude oil futures are sliding as more barrels of oil move through the Strait of Hormuz, although the risk of new military incursions remains strong. "The underlying picture remains fragmented," says Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank in a note. On the one hand, Saudi Arabian crude oil exports picked up in late September, but on the other is the present threat of further U.S. strikes on Middle Eastern infrastructure. "The U.S. decision to send another carrier group towards the region underlines why improving flows have yet to remove the market's risk premium," says Hansen. WTI crude is down 4% to $89.22 a barrel, while Brent crude falls 2.7% to $99.56 a barrel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0905 ET - Gold futures jumped following the release of the September Non-Farm Payrolls report and the latest unemployment figures by the Labor Department - with the number of jobs added coming in well below analyst expectations. The miss has Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar lower, in turn buoying other assets like gold. It's part of a repricing of inflation risk, says Artem Bakushev of Monaxa in a note. "The Fed focused on yesterday's inflation problem, while today's labour data is showing the cost of staying too tight for too long," says Bakushev. Most-active gold is up 1.1% to $4,248 a troy ounce. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0855 ET - Recent USDA data has grain traders viewing demand for soybeans from crushers - which has been a source of excitement for the market this year - as turning lackluster. In its monthly crushings report, the USDA said 6.29 million tons of soybeans were crushed to make soybean oil through the month of August, which is down nearly 6% from the prior month. Crushing and oil production remains up from the same time last year, but futures appear to be reacting more to the lower month-over-month figures. "Prices remain struggling in a context marked by the arrival of a record harvest in the United States and by the anticipation of a slowdown in American crushing," says Argus in a note. Soybean futures slip 0.5% pre-market. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
0648 ET - The physical cocoa market is likely less prepared for a supply shortage than in 2023-2024, when supply tightness prompted a five-fold rise in cocoa prices, Goldman Sachs analysts write. A potentially record-breaking El Nino raises the risk of a poor West African crop, they say. Inventories will likely be lower than 2023-2024, while demand destruction has already occurred--giving the market less slack to absorb a supply crunch, they say. However, prices likely won't hit 2024 highs of around $12,000 a metric ton this time. Better market liquidity means similar price spikes are less likely, the analysts say. Cocoa contracts rise 1.8% to $5,477 a metric ton in New York. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)
0609 ET - Palm oil ended lower, dragged by concerns about Malaysia's rising palm inventories and weak September exports, says David Ng, a trader at Kuala Lumpur-based Iceberg X. Soybean oil's weakness overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade also weighed on palm oil prices. The market will closely watch coming Malaysian Palm Oil Board supply-demand data, movements in soybean oil and crude oil, as well as signs of improvement in export demand next week, Ng adds. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for December delivery fell 21 ringgit to 4,533 ringgit a ton. (sherry.qin@wsj.com)
0349 ET - Gold prices tick higher as markets scale back expectations for imminent interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. "A drop in U.S. Treasury yields overnight along with more cautious commentary from Fed officials is helping to support gold while PCE inflation released earlier in the week came in below expectations for August," says Soojin Kim from MUFG. The probability of another 25-basis-point hike at the FOMC's October meeting has fallen to 28%, from around 70% a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. The nonfarm payrolls report due later Friday is expected to be the next major catalyst for gold prices. In early European trading, New York gold futures are up 0.3% to $4,212.80 a troy ounce.
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