An attack on an oil tanker near Qatar, deep inside the Persian Gulf, has raised fears among traders that a surge in strikes on shipping is spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, threatening the tanker operations that have helped keep oil flowing despite the conflict.
The Acers, an oil and chemical tanker, was struck by several projectiles north of Qatar late Wednesday, causing casualties, according to maritime intelligence firm Vanguard and the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations agency.
It wasn't confirmed Iran conducted the latest strikes near Qatar, but Iranian state-linked media have reported that Iranian forces struck several tankers in recent weeks around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway connecting the Gulf to the open seas. Iran's ability to target ships has also improved in recent weeks, adding to the risks in the strait, The Wall Street Journal has reported.
Oil prices jumped Thursday as the latest attack fueled concerns among traders that Iran could further disrupt shipments through Hormuz. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose around 5% to more than $105 a barrel. Oil flows through Hormuz and linked routes have already started to decline in recent days, preliminary tracking data show.
The prospect of attacks deeper inside the Gulf threatens to complicate elaborate U.S.-backed shipping arrangements that have helped oil exports recover toward prewar levels last month. Tankers have been conducting so-called shuttle runs, carrying crude from Gulf oil terminals through the strait to vessels waiting outside, where it is transferred for onward delivery.
The escalation comes as Tehran faces growing pressure. The U.S. blockade of its ports has choked off Tehran's oil revenue, while Iran's failure to halt Gulf exports has weakened its biggest source of leverage.
By increasing attacks on shipping, Tehran is seeking to break the stalemate in Hormuz, hoping to increase pressure on Washington ahead of November's midterm elections, analysts say.
"Iran wants to sustain pressure on global energy markets. Keeping oil prices elevated increases the economic costs of the conflict for Washington and its partners," said Alice Gower, partner at Azure Strategy, a political-risk advisory firm in London. "Tehran will be conscious of Trump's sensitivity to higher oil prices and the political implications of an unresolved conflict ahead of the midterms."
Ship tracker Kpler reported that 10 tankers were struck inside the strait from Sept. 28 to Oct. 4. That is the highest number of strikes in any week this year, compared with a previous weekly high of six, according to Kpler.
The escalation is putting renewed pressure on oil shipments.
Preliminary Kpler data show oil flows through Hormuz and associated transfers outside the strait fell 27% in the week ended Oct. 4 from a wartime high the previous week, though the figures could be revised higher.
Gulf producers have increasingly relied on the U.S.-protected tanker movements, ship-to-ship transfers outside Hormuz and pipelines that bypass the strait entirely. Saudi Arabia has also resumed exports from both its Gulf and Red Sea coasts after repairing part of the damage to its East-West Pipeline following an attack last month.
Those alternative routes have helped keep regional crude exports near prewar levels.
For Tehran, the contrast is stark. Iran loaded no crude onto ships in September, according to Kpler, as the U.S. blockade deprived the country of vital foreign-currency earnings and compounded an economic crisis.
Iranian officials have warned in recent days that they intend to challenge their neighbors' shipping arrangements, including by closing routes near Oman's coast.
Analysts at consulting firm Eurasia Group said this week they expect Iran to continue targeting shipping in an effort to undermine U.S. gains rather than deliberately seek a full-scale confrontation.
The strategy carries considerable risks. President Trump has said he is weighing renewed military action against Iran and further disruption to oil exports could strengthen the case for American strikes. Those, in turn, could trigger Iranian retaliation against Gulf energy infrastructure and American military bases, potentially pushing oil prices even higher.
"Without a credible diplomatic pathway, both sides risk becoming trapped in an increasingly dangerous cycle of escalation," said Gower, the partner at Azure Strategy.
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