General Dynamics is getting a new CEO. Company leadership, however, isn't the problem in the Defense business these days.
On Wednesday, General Dynamics, the maker of tanks, private jets, and nuclear-powered submarines, named Danny Deep to succeed CEO Phebe Novakovic.
It's an orderly transition. Novakovic has run General Dynamics since 2013.
"Danny is a highly skilled executive with rich operating experience. It has been a pleasure working closely with him, and I am certain he will be an outstanding CEO," said Novakovic in a news release. "I very much look forward to our continuing collaboration." She will transition to a role as executive chairman.
Deep has been with General Dynamics for 25 years. "Mr. Deep is known to be a team player and problem-solver, most notably with GD's Land Systems unit in Europe where the business has experienced significant growth," wrote Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu on Wednesday.
As for Novakovic, a former CIA Operations officer, Kahyaoglu pointed out General Dynamics is in good shape and improving free cash flow.
Since the start of 2013, General Dynamics stock is up about 370%, excluding dividends. Not bad, but the S&P 500 is up about 445%. Essentially, all of the underperformance has come since March.
If investors look at performance heading into the U.S. war with Iran -- which began on Feb. 28 -- General Dynamics stock was up 415% since 2013, better than the S&P's 380% gain.
Since the start of fighting in Iran, General Dynamics stock is down about 9%, which is very good relative to peers. Shares of Northrop Grumman, L3Harris Technologies, and Lockheed Martin are down roughly 30% on average.
Investors just haven't wanted defense stocks lately. Wall Street believes they are worried about rising interest rates, government deficits, and the impact on military spending if Republicans lose control of Congress after the midterm elections.
What General Dynamics stock might need more than a new CEO is for the elections to happen.
"Historically, defense stocks have shown a strong tendency to rally after conflicts escalate (like in the Middle East) as well as 'Smile' (dip and then rally) ahead of major elections," wrote Citi analyst John Godyn in a recent report. "This year, defense stocks have broken both patterns."
A lack of stock buybacks and the "Feinberg memo" are two other reasons he cited for weak stock performance. The September memo outlines plans by Deputy Secretary of Defense Steve Feinberg to overhaul defense acquisition.
Still, Godyn believes the risk of a "Blue Wave" is the biggest factor behind recent defense stock performance.
He is still looking for stocks to bounce after the elections, even if the Democrats take control of the House. At least investors will know the outcome. That's less uncertainty, and investors hate uncertainty.
Novakovic's departure signals something else for the defense sector. It will leave Kathy Warden as the only woman running a major defense contractor. A few years back, Marillyn Hewson ran Lockheed, Warden ran Northrop, and Novakovic headed General Dynamics.
Warden has run Northrop since 2019. When Novakovic steps down, Warden will be the longest-serving CEO at a major U.S. defense contractor.
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