El Nino Could Relieve Europe's Gas Market

Dow Jones10-08 22:47

1447 GMT - A strong El Nino could provide some relief for Europe's natural-gas market over the coming months, says Capital Economics' David Oxley. Warmer-than-average temperatures would reduce heating demand from households and small businesses, lowering overall gas consumption. At the same time, stronger winds could increase electricity generation from wind power, further reducing reliance on gas-fired power generation. This would be particularly helpful given that European gas storage levels are currently around 18 billion cubic meters below their five-year average, according to the economist. Lower demand could therefore reduce competition with Asia for limited global LNG supplies and limit the risk of a sharp increase in gas prices. Capital Economics forecasts the Dutch TTF contract, Europe's benchmark, to end the year at 80 euros a megawatt-hour, broadly in line with current levels.

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