The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0928 ET - The Norwegian krone could rise further as fundamentals are supportive and oil prices remain elevated, ING analysts say in a note. Neither the risk of a rapid de-escalation in the Middle East conflict or a sharp oil price decline appear imminent at this stage, they say, noting Norway's position as a major oil and gas producer. Moreover, the krone benefits from a weaker euro on French fiscal concerns, which is offsetting the impact of a poorer liquidity environment, they say. The euro falls 0.1% to 10.6921 krone after earlier reaching a one-month low of 10.6835. ING expects it to reach 10.65 in one month and 10.50 in 12 months.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0927 ET - The Swedish krona could rise modestly if geopolitical tensions ease and French fiscal risks weigh on the euro for longer, ING analysts say in a note. The Riksbank is likely to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in November and signal further tightening, although external factors remain the main driver for the krona, they say. "While the krona remains a less attractive expression of eurozone fiscal risk than the franc or sterling, it was also notably cheap versus short-term fair value at the end of last month." The euro rises 0.1% to 11.2009 krona and ING expects it to reach 11.00 in six months and 10.75 in 12 months.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0925 ET - U.K. assets could face downward pressure heading to the October 28 budget due to concerns about public finances, Ebury's Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. "Given the renewed focus on fiscal sustainability among bond investors, this month's Autumn Budget remains a critical risk for both gilts and the pound." Investors will look to Treasury chief John Healey for reassurance that future spending plans won't lead to unsustainable debt, Diaz-Alvarez says. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1.5 basis points to last trade at 5.440%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0924 ET - Sterling hits a 16-month high versus the euro and could extend these gains if French debt concerns escalate, ING analysts say in a note. The euro could fall to 0.8200 pounds if French fiscal risks cause 10-year French-German bond yield spreads to widen to 250 basis points from 140 currently and the European Central Bank to take emergency measures, they say. However, this isn't ING's call. Instead, ING expects a more contained French crisis and the Bank of England to raise interest rates in November and February, keeping the euro in a range of 0.8400-0.8500 pounds for several months, with a "downside skew." The euro falls to 0.8443 pounds, its lowest level since June 2025, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0922 ET - Credit rating agency S&P Global Ratings affirmed the U.K.'s AA rating on its government bonds and maintained a stable outlook on the economy. "The stable outlook reflects our view that the U.K. economy has remained, and will remain, resilient in the face of the energy shock emanating from the Middle East conflict," it said in a statement on Friday. S&P Global said that it could lower the rating if the U.K.'s cost of borrowing were to increase considerably alongside a sharp rise in public spending. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0759 ET - A significant Swiss franc appreciation would put the Swiss National Bank in a difficult position, Societe Generale's Kit Juckes says in a note. A break below 0.90 in the euro versus the franc despite a shift towards using the franc as a funding currency instead of the yen would "surely put the SNB in a bind." The SNB's policy rate is 0% while others are tightening monetary policy. If the SNB fails to stem sharp franc gains, the euro could fall to 0.85 francs, he says. The franc is "absurdly expensive" but the geopolitical backdrop remains favorable for the safe-haven currency. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.9308 after reaching a 10-week low of 0.9258 on Oct. 2, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0746 ET - The price of bitcoin rose last week despite five consecutive sessions of heavy outflows from exchange-traded funds totaling $679 million, analysts at crypto data platform CoinMarketCap say. Its data found that 0.6% of total assets were liquidated last week, with Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF posting $380.3 million of redemptions. "The price rose 1% regardless because the selling was met by short covering, not by new spot buyers," says Alice Liu, CoinMarketCap research head. "That is a thinner floor than $84,000 looks." Bitcoin is 0.3% lower at $83,304. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
0743 ET - The Chinese renminbi's recent appreciation shows policymakers remain comfortable for the currency to strengthen as risks to trade from President Trump's tariffs have eased, MUFG Bank's Lee Hardman says in a note. "Upward momentum for the renminbi has been encouraged by the People's Bank of China setting lower daily fixes for dollar-yuan over the past month even as the dollar index has strengthened by around 4%." Policymakers should continue to allow the renminbi to strengthen gradually to limit the impact on trade relations given the EU's pushback against China's widening trade surplus with Europe, he says. The dollar trades flat at 6.6925 yuan, having reached a 45-month low of 6.6913 earlier, according to LSEG. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0732 ET - Sterling rises to a 16-month high against the euro, extending its recent rally. Concerns about French debt are weighing on the euro while sterling is boosted by markets pricing a 90% chance the Bank of England will raise rates by 25 basis points in November, according to LSEG. However, any rate increase will likely prove to be a one-off insurance hike, Ebury's Enrique Diaz-Alvarez says in a note. The U.K. budget on October 28 remains a "critical risk" for sterling and U.K. government bonds given the renewed focus on fiscal sustainability among bond investors, he says. The euro falls to 0.8443 pounds, its lowest level since June 2025. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)
0729 ET - The effect of rising sovereign bond yields on European banks' asset holdings has been muted so far, ING's Jesse Norcross says in a note, citing findings from the European Banking Authority. European banks all together hold around 4 trillion euros of sovereign bonds, Norcross says. "[EBA] supervisors remain comfortable with current risk levels, with earnings softening the blow of potential valuation effects," he says. Nonetheless, rising geopolitical tensions and challenging macroeconomic conditions warrant monitoring of sovereign bond holdings, he says. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)
0716 ET - The rebound in oil prices above $100 a barrel is weighing on Germany's economic prospects, Alexander Valentin at Oxford Economics says in a note. "Our view of higher energy prices next year have prompted us to raise our 2027 inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, deepening the squeeze on real incomes," he says. As a result, OE also cut its 2027 GDP forecast for the country by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%. "We now think private consumption will grow by just 0.6% next year, down from our previous projection of 0.9%." In addition, the risk of more rate hikes by the ECB has risen, Valentin says. "We expect the ECB to hold rates this month, although the risk of back-to-back hikes after September's move is not negligible." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0702 ET - The U.A.E. economy barely expanded in the first half of 2026, with financial services providing a key offset to weakness in oil and other sectors, Emirates NBD Research says. Real GDP rose 0.4% on year in the first half, while the economy contracted 2.1% in 2Q. Oil output fell 5.7% and non-oil activity declined 1.1% in the second quarter, with tourism, transport and trade particularly affected by regional disruption. Finance, however, expanded 12.2%, highlighting a sharp divergence between the banking-related sector and the broader economy.
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