Venture Global (VG) Following Its New LNG Deal Is The Stock Already Fully Valued

Simply Wall St.10-11 11:42

AdvertisementWhy the new LNG agreement matters for Venture Global Venture Global (VG) just signed a 20 year liquefied natural gas Sales and Purchase Agreement with ConocoPhillips, covering 1.0 million...

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Venture Global’s share price is up 86.93% year to date, even though the 30 day share price return is down 16.71% and the 1 year total shareholder return is 40.40%.\nScan other LNG focused plays riding...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BK4213":"石油与天然气的勘探与生产","BK6515":"技术设备股","SG9999004220.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Asia Dividend Equity Fund  SGD","SG9999014492.USD":"NIKKO AM ASEAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999014484.SGD":"Nikko AM ASEAN Equity Fund A SGD","SG9999001135.SGD":"United ASEAN Fund SGD","SG9999008742.SGD":"Eastspring Investments Unit Trusts - Singapore ASEAN Equity SGD","VG":"Venture Global, Inc.","BK4023":"应用软件","SG9999000475.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Singapore Equity SGD","SGXZ51708014.SGD":"AMOVA SINGAPORE EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SGXZ56544364.SGD":"AMOVA SINGAPORE SMALL MID CAP EQUITY FUND \"A\" (SGD) ACC","PBOG":"Portfolio Building Block Integrated Oil and Gas and Exploration and Production Index ETF","SG9999001846.SGD":"Schroder Asian Equity Yield A Dis SGD","SG9999004360.SGD":"Nikko AM Shenton Thrift Fund SGD","BK6062":"电子制造服务","SG9999006266.SGD":"MANULIFE SINGAPORE EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","SGXZ90407099.SGD":"AMOVA SINGAPORE SMALL MID CAP EQUITY FUND \"A\" (SGD) INC"},"translate_title":"Venture Global (VG) 在达成新的液化天然气交易后，该股已被充分估值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"PBOG":1.5,"VG":1.5},"content_text":"AdvertisementWhy the new LNG agreement matters for Venture Global Venture Global (VG) just signed a 20 year liquefied natural gas Sales and Purchase Agreement with ConocoPhillips, covering 1.0 million tonnes per year of LNG deliveries starting in 2030. The LNG deal lands after a sharp shift in sentiment. Venture Global’s share price is up 86.93% year to date, even though the 30 day share price return is down 16.71% and the 1 year total shareholder return is 40.40%. Scan other LNG focused plays riding similar contract momentum with our hand picked 16 nuclear energy infrastructure stocks. Venture Global has rallied hard this year, then given back a chunk of that move. Are investors now paying for contract-backed cash flows or reacting to a mood swing around LNG sentiment, and how does that show up in the valuation work next? Most Popular Narrative: 21% Undervalued Venture Global’s most followed valuation story pegs fair value at $16.67 per share, compared with the last close of $13.16. As a result, the LNG contract sits inside a framework that already views the stock as undervalued on a discounted cash flow basis using a 7.96% discount rate.  Rapid ramp up of Plaquemines and CP2 production, with proven ability to operate meaningfully above nameplate capacity, should drive sustained volume growth and materially higher revenue and EBITDA as additional trains reach COD.  See why 14 investors see Venture Global as 21% undervalued. Result: Fair Value of $16.67 (UNDERVALUED) Still, the Venture Global story can break if arbitration at Calcasieu Pass absorbs more cash than expected, or if LNG supply growth crushes liquefaction fee economics. Find out about the key risks to this Venture Global narrative. Next Steps If this LNG narrative feels pulled in two directions, with contract upside on one side and arbitration risk on the other, move quickly and test the story against your own framework by weighing the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs. Looking for more Venture Global sized ideas? Do not stop with Venture Global. Put this LNG thesis alongside fresh ideas from different angles so your portfolio is not leaning on a single story.  Chase upside potential in smaller companies that already have meaningful fundamentals by zeroing in on 14 elite penny stocks with strong financials. Lock in a watchlist of stronger balance sheets by filtering for businesses in the list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals (25 results). Spot opportunities before the wider market pays attention by scanning the 20 high quality undiscovered gems.   This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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