The latest Market Talks covering Equities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
0826 ET - Porsche's investor event presented a coherent and realistic strategy built on value over volume, exclusivity and personalization, with a brand that remains exceptionally strong, AlphaValue analyst Adrien Brasey writes. "However, the recovery will be long." Brasey adds that 2027 will be the trough, with new products only contributing from 2028-2029, and management has anchored to the low end of a 10%-15% margin target for 2030-2031. The new cash flow target and payout ratio are the main positives, but China and U.S. tariffs cap the upside, he adds. AlphaValue maintains its sell rating and 35.80 euro target price. Shares rise 2% to 42.36 euros. (dominic.chopping@wsj.com)
0815 ET - Novartis faces a patent cliff in the early 2030s, when three big drugs are due to lose exclusivity, but has levers to pull to offset the hit, Bank of America analysts say in a research note. Recent trial setbacks have put upcoming patent expirations for anti-inflammatory drug Cosentyx, breast-cancer medicine Kisqali, and multiple-sclerosis treatment Kesimpta on investors' radar, the analysts say. The Swiss drugmaker could address the shortfall through faster sales growth from leukemia drug Scemblix, cholesterol-lowering medication Leqvio and prostate-cancer therapy Pluvicto, as well as expanding Rhapsido to new indications, according to Bank of America. Other drugs Novartis is developing--such as blood thinner abelacimab, ianalumab for Sjogren's disease, and blood-cancer treatment pelabresib--could also help, the analysts add. Shares rise 0.5%. (adria.calatayud@wsj.com)
0746 ET - The price of bitcoin rose last week despite five consecutive sessions of heavy outflows from exchange-traded funds totaling $679 million, analysts at crypto data platform CoinMarketCap say. Its data found that 0.6% of total assets were liquidated last week, with Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF posting $380.3 million of redemptions. "The price rose 1% regardless because the selling was met by short covering, not by new spot buyers," says Alice Liu, CoinMarketCap research head. "That is a thinner floor than $84,000 looks." Bitcoin is 0.3% lower at $83,304. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
0740 ET - European bank valuations look undemanding after a sector selloff that appears to have been unwarranted, Citi analysts write. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index has fallen 6% in October, due to increased sovereign concerns. This is smaller than previous corrections, Citi notes, but investors should buy the dip nevertheless. There is potential for more positive earnings upgrades during third-quarter reporting, while sovereign fears seem to be misplaced as banks have significantly cut domestic sovereign holdings, Citi adds. The share price falls for Societe Generale, UniCredit, BNP Paribas and CaixaBank seem particularly hard to justify, Citi adds. Citi has an overweight recommendation for the European banking sector. (michael.hennessey@wsj.com)
0716 ET - The rebound in oil prices above $100 a barrel is weighing on Germany's economic prospects, Alexander Valentin at Oxford Economics says in a note. "Our view of higher energy prices next year have prompted us to raise our 2027 inflation forecast by 0.5 percentage points to 2.8%, deepening the squeeze on real incomes," he says. As a result, OE also cut its 2027 GDP forecast for the country by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%. "We now think private consumption will grow by just 0.6% next year, down from our previous projection of 0.9%." In addition, the risk of more rate hikes by the ECB has risen, Valentin says. "We expect the ECB to hold rates this month, although the risk of back-to-back hikes after September's move is not negligible." (don.forbes@wsj.com)
0714 ET - A downturn in demand for luxury fashion likely weighed on LVMH's quarterly sales, analysts at Bank of America write. The French luxury behemoth is to report third-quarter revenue figures Monday, and the fashion & leather-goods division will likely show a fresh slip of around 4%, ending a recovery into positive growth booked a quarter earlier, according to BofA's estimates. That will take group sales not much more than flat on year, the analysts say. "Global luxury demand has deteriorated in 3Q across all regions," the bank says, lowering its target on LVMH stock to 520 euros from 640 euros, keeping a buy rating. Shares trade around 0.7% higher at 382.90 euros. (joshua.kirby@wsj.com; @joshualeokirby)
0659 ET -- United Arab Emirates banks face growing funding pressure as lending expands faster than deposits amid strong credit demand, analysts at MUFG say. Bank lending rose 18.1% on year in 2Q, compared with deposit growth of around 14%, pushing the sector's loan-to-deposit ratio above 80% from 77.7% in 2025. Infrastructure-related borrowing, foreign-currency deposit outflows and the expiry of central-bank liquidity support measures are tightening funding conditions, the analysts say. Competition for deposits has intensified, with some lenders offering promotional rates above the central bank's 3.9% base rate. MUFG says liquidity remains within regulatory limits, but higher funding costs could squeeze margins and profitability. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0659 ET - U.A.E. bank stocks face a key technical test after a broad selloff last week, Dubai's BHM Capital says. The S&P U.A.E. Banks Index fell 3.7%, bringing it close to its long-term moving average and erasing part of its summer gains. Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank dropped 5.1%, First Abu Dhabi Bank lost 4.2% and Emirates NBD fell 2.9%. BHM says the retreat reflects both broader economic pressures and company-specific capital actions, including Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank's planned equity issuance. The brokerage says the sector's underlying resilience remains intact, but investors will be watching whether shares hold near their technical support levels. (farhan.rafid@wsj.com)
0653 ET - European airlines are likely to continue cutting short-haul capacity but trans-Atlantic routes should prove more resilient, Bank of America analysts write. Winter capacity cuts should further support the supply-demand balance and fares in short-haul, they say. "Lower capacity guides should support unit revenues but could pressure ex-fuel unit costs as fixed costs are spread across fewer seats," they add. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0647 ET - Most leverage has left bitcoin and migrated to other cryptocurrencies in the year since the flagship coin's historic price crash, CoinMarketCap analysts say. October 10 marked one year since bitcoin tumbled from $122,000 to $105,000 in minutes as highly leveraged positions collapsed. CoinMarketCap found that open interest in global crypto assets--the amount of derivatives contracts still open--rose 15% this week, while bitcoin's open interest fell 6%. "A year after the 10 October crash, the market owns bitcoin in spot and barely owns it on leverage. The gearing has migrated to altcoins," writes Alice Liu, head of research at CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin is 0.2% lower at $83,450. (joseph.wilkins@wsj.com)
0645 ET - Hays' share price fall is an opportunity to buy, Panmure Liberum analysts Sanjay Vidyarthi and Joe Brent write. The recruitment company reported a 3% drop in like-for-like net fee income for its fiscal 2027 first quarter. That was in line with Panmure's estimate, but a small beat versus consensus at minus 4%. They add there could be a 50% upside to fiscal 2027 EBIT consensus if management executes its cost plan. "We see today's opening share price reaction as surprising, given a trading update that has delivered what we expected and that forecast risk remains positive," the analysts say. Panmure has a buy rating on the stock and a 100 pence target price. Shares are down 7.5% at 59.40 pence but are 6% higher over the year to date. (ian.walker@wsj.com)
0641 ET - Spanish banks have lost their defensive edge during a recent correction in the broader sector, UBS's Ignacio Cerezo and Alvaro Fernandez-Garayzabal write. Spanish banks are down around 2% compared to the sector. This is due to a combination of mixed messaging on net interest income, which has slowed down earnings per share revisions, as well as relatively high multiples, the analysts say. The only chance of a bounce is for banks that give a "reassuring" net interest income message. UBS reiterates CaixaBank is its favored option in the sector, as it is the highest quality stock which is no longer trading on a large premium. All Spanish banks are trading below UBS's price targets for the first time "in a while", with upside potential between 13% for Banco de Sabadell and 26% for CaixaBank.
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