Johnson Controls (JCI) Stock Looks Close To Fair Value Today

Simply Wall St.06:29

Johnson Controls International has delivered a powerful share price run in recent years, which puts a spotlight on whether the cash the business generates really supports where the stock trades today....

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For investors watching Johnson Controls International after such a sustained climb, a key consideration is how that market enthusiasm lines up with the cash flows implied by the current valuation.\n\nOver the past 3 years the stock has returned 209.6%, which raises the question of how much future...","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"simplywall.st","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"LU0124384867.USD":"贝莱德新能源基金A2","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1791710400.SGD":"Fidelity Global Demographics A-ACC-SGD","IE00B19Z9Z06.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc USD","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","JCI.AU":"JC International","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B3T34201.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1978683503.SGD":"Blackrock Sustainable Energy A2 SGD-H","LU0070302665.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","BK4086":"建筑产品","IE0001KFT4U8.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE GLOBAL GROWTH LEADERS \"A\" (USD) INC","GRID":"First Trust NASDAQ Clean Edge Smart Grid Infrastructure Index Fund","BERZ":"MicroSectors FANG & Innovation -3X Inverse Leveraged ETN","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AIBU":"Direxion Daily AI and Big Data Bull 2X ETF","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1854103824.USD":"M&G (LUX) POSITIVE IMPACT \"A\" (USD) INC","DCF":"Dreyfus Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund, Inc","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","JCI":"江森自控","BK4588":"碎股","PKB":"INVESCO BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION ETF","WDAI":"Pacer S&P World 3AI Top 300 ETF","LU1989772840.SGD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc SGD-H","LU0320765489.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Mutual US Value A Acc SGD","LU1144417596.USD":"UBS (LUX) GLOBAL QUALITY DIVIDEND EQUITY \"Q\" (USD) INC","LU1989772923.USD":"CPR Invest - Climate Action A2 Acc USD-H","LU0211331839.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL GLB DISCOVERY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ9MQY76.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2087625088.SGD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1989764664.SGD":"CPR Invest - Global Disruptive Opportunities A2 Acc SGD-H","SPHQ":"Invesco S&P 500 Quality ETF","LU0528227936.USD":"富达环球人口趋势基金A-ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","BK4580":"工业 4.0","LU1854104046.USD":"M&G (LUX) POSITIVE IMPACT \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B7SZLL34.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD-H","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"translate_title":"江森自控 (JCI) 股票今天看起来接近公允价值","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BERZ":0.6,"SPHQ":0.8,"PKB":0.6,"WDAI":0.6,"GRID":0.6,"DCF":1,"JCI.AU":1.5,"JCI":1.5,"AIBU":0.6},"content_text":"Johnson Controls International has delivered a powerful share price run in recent years, which puts a spotlight on whether the cash the business generates really supports where the stock trades today. For investors watching Johnson Controls International after such a sustained climb, a key consideration is how that market enthusiasm lines up with the cash flows implied by the current valuation.  Over the past 3 years the stock has returned 209.6%, which raises the question of how much future cash generation is already reflected in the price. The company’s move to join the Sustainable Tropical Data Centre Testbed 2.0 in Singapore may support expectations for future cash flows if its thermal management and smart controls technology gain wider adoption in energy intensive data center projects. Prefer to judge Johnson Controls International on earnings? See why Johnson Controls International's 42.8x P/E tells a different valuation story.  The issue now is whether Johnson Controls International’s recent share price level is properly grounded in the cash flows that the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) intrinsic value estimate attributes to the business. If you are weighing whether Johnson Controls International’s current valuation lines up with its cash flows, it can help to compare that question across 92 AI infrastructure stocks. AdvertisementDoes Johnson Controls International Look Fairly Valued on Cash Flow? The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model here is built around Johnson Controls International’s ability to turn its operations into steady free cash generation. Over the latest twelve months the group produced free cash flow of about $1.6b, and the projections used in the model assume this cash stream grows over time rather than shrinking. The ten year cash flow path in the DCF points to rising annual free cash flow into the 2030s, which supports an intrinsic value estimate broadly in line with the current $154.00 share price. Johnson Controls International joining Singapore’s Sustainable Tropical Data Centre Testbed 2.0 helps explain why the market is comfortable paying up for those future cash flows, since data centre cooling and controls can be very capital intensive and long dated. Find out what Johnson Controls International could be worth using our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) estimate. The Johnson Controls International Narrative: What Would Justify Today's Price? Simply Wall St Narratives pick up where the Johnson Controls International valuation puzzle leaves off by laying out in plain terms what kind of future growth, margins and earnings would need to show up for the stock to be worth materially more or less than today’s price. Each scenario focuses less on a single multiple or model number and more on the key assumptions that sit underneath its fair value, so you can later compare those expectations with the actual results that come through on the Community page. The community is split on Johnson Controls International, with one group seeing more upside in the data center and services story while another flags timing and valuation risks. Bull case: 7% undervalued \"Strong data center orders, systems bookings and a record backlog of around US$21b, with management planning for data centers to reach roughly one third of revenue within the next few years...\" Discover why this Narrative puts Johnson Controls International at 7% undervalued. Bear case: 19% overvalued \"While Johnson Controls International highlights record orders and a growing data center pipeline, customer projects are already seeing 3 to 4 month delays in electrical infrastructure versus typical lead times...\" Explore why this Narrative puts Johnson Controls International at 19% overvalued. One more Johnson Controls International signal worth checking before you move on Before you finish your research on Johnson Controls International, it is worth looking at the recent share transactions by people inside the business, who sold, how much, and what that could mean. See the recent insider selling flagged for Johnson Controls International. NYSE:JCI Insider Trading Volume as at Oct 2026  This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data\n        and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your\n        financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data.\n        Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.\n        Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.New: Manage All Your Stock Portfolios in One PlaceWe've created the ultimate portfolio companion for stock investors, and it's free.• Connect an unlimited number of Portfolios and see your total in one currency• Be alerted to new Warning Signs or Risks via email or mobile• Track the Fair Value of your stocksTry a Demo Portfolio for FreeHave feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. 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