U.S. natural gas inventories likely posted a smaller-than-usual increase last week, shrinking the surplus over the five-year average for a ninth week in a row, according to a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts.
Natural gas in underground storage is expected to be up by 75 billion cubic feet at 3,575 Bcf in the week ended Oct. 9, according to the average estimate of 12 analysts, brokers and traders. Estimates range from an injection of 42 Bcf to an injection of 91 Bcf.
The expected storage build compares with the five-year average for the week of 96 Bcf, and would lower the surplus over the average to 53 Bcf from 68 Bcf the week before. The injection season typically runs from April through October, although storage builds are frequently seen extending into mid-November.
In its Short Term Energy Outlook published last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration estimated that natural gas inventories will reach 3,850 Bcf by the end of October, putting stocks about 2% above the five-year average to start the winter season.
"Our forecast assumes heating degree days this winter will be nearly unchanged from last winter on a national average basis and 1% less than the previous five-winter average," the EIA said.
The EIA is scheduled to report weekly natural gas storage on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
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