IMF Chief Economist Silvana Tenreyro $(CUL3)$ speaks next to IMF Research Department Deputy Director Petya Koeva Brooks (R) and IMF Communications Officer Jose Luis De Haro (L) during the World Economic Outlook press briefing.
The International Monetary Fund has a reputation for visual excellence, and the chart the global agency used to accompany its latest world economic outlook is quite striking.
It was the very first chart in the 124-page document, so it's definitely the one the IMF wanted to showcase.
The chart plots the countries where their economic forecasts were revised upwards from January with those that were revised downwards.
Top left, good; bottom right, bad.
The size of each bubble indicates each economy's contribution to the growth revision between the start of the year and October. The Y axis represents the trade exposure to AI. The X axis represents net energy exports in 2024, before the Iran war, though it's unclear on what measurement scale.
It's not your typical chart - the X axis is what's called a signed-log scale, so you can see the huge values on the same axis as negative numbers. The Y axis is banded rather than a smooth, continuous scale.
Those caveats aside, it tells a very straightforward story. Asian economies including Taiwan and South Korea are booming thanks to the AI trade. Gulf oil producers like Saudi Arabia are struggling, because they can't physically get their exports to would-be buyers.
Iran's economy, on the receiving end of missiles as well as a U.S. naval blockade, is not faring well.
Debt-ravaged France, a minor AI player and inconsequential in energy terms, is languishing.
The IMF's view of the U.S. economy is a little bit better than when the year started.
This chart is relatively representative of stock-market performance as well. Taiwan's TAIEX TW:Y9999 has surged 67% this year as South Korea's Kospi KR:180721, despite Tuesday's slide, has jumped 43%.
The U.S. S&P 500 SPX has gained 14%.
The French CAC 40 FR:PX1 has retreated by 4%. Saudi Arabia's All Shares index has slipped 2%.
-Steve Goldstein
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