China cuts 2026/27 soybean production forecast, trims 2025/26 corn feed-use estimate in October: CASDE

Fastmarkets10-13

For soybeans, the committee trimmed its 2026/27 production estimate on lower planted area and yield, though it kept output above 20 million tonnes, while holding imports, crush and consumption steady....

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For corn, it cut its 2025/26 feed consumption estimate and raised industrial use, carrying those adjustments into the 2026/27 consumption outlook while keeping production and imports unchanged. Vegetable oil forecasts were left unchanged for both marketing years. The committee pointed to generally normal weather across major producing regions as the new-crop harvest advanced, higher initial purchase prices for new-crop domestic soybeans year on year, and firmer international grain and oilseed prices.\nSoybeans\nCAOC lowered China’s 2026/27 soybean production forecast to 20.36 million tonnes in October, down 590,000 tonnes from 20.95 million tonnes in September, attributing the cut to planted area and yield coming in below earlier expectations while output stayed above the 20 million tonne mark. Harvested area was reduced to 10.11 million hectares from 10.19 million, and the yield estimate was trimmed to 2,013 kg per hectare from 2,055 kg per hectare.\nThe committee left its 2026/27 soybean import forecast unchanged at 95.5 million tonnes and held the crush forecast at 94 million tonnes, with total 2026/27 consumption also unchanged at 113.96 million tonnes. The smaller harvest instead flowed through to the balance sheet, with the 2026/27 inventory build trimmed by 590,000 tonnes to 1.75 million tonnes from 2.34 million tonnes. Current-year 2025/26 estimates were essentially unchanged, with imports held at 108 million tonnes and the crush at 101.5 million tonnes.\nThe committee said new-crop soybeans in the Northeast producing region had entered the market in concentrated volumes following generally normal harvest-period weather, with initial purchase prices notably higher than a year earlier. It attributed the firmer prices to the slightly smaller crop, higher planting costs, bullish market sentiment and rising international prices, and said it expected the domestic soybean market to hold at elevated levels for a period.\n\nCorn\nCAOC cut China’s 2025/26 corn feed consumption estimate by 9.4 million tonnes to 201.5 million tonnes in October, while raising its 2025/26 industrial consumption estimate by 4 million tonnes to 85 million tonnes, citing increased feed use of corn substitutes and a recovery in starch-plant operating rates. The net effect lowered 2025/26 total corn consumption to 307.4 million tonnes from 312.8 million tonnes.\nCarrying those adjustments into the new crop year, the committee reduced its 2026/27 feed consumption forecast to 200.5 million tonnes from 209.6 million in September and raised industrial use to 85.5 million tonnes from 81.2 million in September, trimming total 2026/27 consumption to 306.85 million tonnes from 311.65 million. The 2026/27 production and import forecasts were maintained at 306 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes, respectively, lifting the projected 2026/27 inventory build to 5.14 million tonnes from 0.34 million tonnes in September.\nThe committee said favorable light and temperature conditions and a late first frost across most of Northeast China in September, together with suitable conditions in North China and the Huang-Huai region, had supported yield formation and harvesting. It expected temperatures in main producing regions in the second half of October to be near or above normal with near-normal rainfall, broadly favorable for corn to mature and dry down. While higher new-crop output and rising marketed volumes are adding to near-term supply pressure, the committee said still-high feed demand, an improving starch sector, the timely start of reserve purchasing and the pass-through of sharply higher international corn prices should keep the domestic market largely stable.\n\nVegetable oils\nCAOC left its 2026/27 edible vegetable oil supply and demand forecasts unchanged from September, maintaining production at 31.43 million tonnes, imports at 7.7 million tonnes, consumption at 37.89 million tonnes and exports at 760,000 tonnes. Soybean oil output was held at 17.17 million tonnes and rapeseed oil at 7.77 million tonnes. Current-year 2025/26 estimates were also unchanged.\nThe committee said new-crop peanuts had come to market in large volumes, but slow farmer selling during the autumn harvest-and-planting window, combined with softer oil-mill procurement after the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, had left trade quiet and peanut prices broadly stable. \nIt is expected that domestic prices are to find firmer support as edible oil consumption moves into its seasonal peak and higher international oilseed and oil prices feed through. The committee flagged above-normal rainfall forecast for the eastern part of southwest China and the middle and lower Yangtze, raising the risk of prolonged wet weather and waterlogging during the autumn harvest, and urged producing regions to use dry spells to advance rapeseed planting.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.52.0","shortVersion":"4.52.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2675368018","isCrawlerRequest":true}