Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on Weibo's (HKG:9898) long-term issuer default rating to negative from stable, while affirming the rating at 'BBB', citing mounting pressure on profitability and uncertainty over legal proceedings involving its parent, Sina Corporation.
The ratings agency expects intense competition, weak consumption growth in China, and higher investment in video content and AI-enabled products to weigh on Weibo's earnings.
Fitch forecasts EBITDA of $450 million to $500 million in both 2026 and 2027, with a meaningful recovery remaining uncertain.
The negative outlook also reflects potential financial liabilities arising from Sina's appeal against an adverse judgment linked to its privatization.
An unfavorable outcome could weaken Sina's credit profile and negatively affect Weibo's ratings.
Despite the pressures, Fitch expects Weibo to maintain a substantial net cash position, supported by steady free cash flow generation.
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