SpaceX Has a Ukraine Problem. What it Means for the Stock.

Dow Jones10-15 21:54

Tesla investors know that politics can have an impact on their electric-vehicle investment sometimes. SpaceX investors are learning a similar lesson.

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has been wading into Russia-Ukraine policy, calling for the replacement of President Volodymyr Zelensky late on Wednesday. That tweet followed a recent comment from Musk that "Zelensky has gone too far," following Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.

On Wednesday, SpaceX imposed new restrictions on Ukraine's Starlink use, essentially shutting the service off if the equipment is going more than 100 miles per hour. That might sound odd to investors, but it means that Starlink won't work on fast moving drones, limiting Ukraine's ability to hit some Russian targets.

Starlink is SpaceX's space-based broadband operating in more than 160 countries.

SpaceX didn't respond to a request for comment.

Musk seemed to point to the U.S. government for the restrictions, adding another tweet that Starlink is limited to "civilian and defense activities," and that Starshield -- the military version of Starlink -- is controlled by the U.S. government. "Any limits on speed or usage are decided by the U.S. military and ultimately POTUS," said Musk.

The Starlink, Starshield, Ukraine issue is a watch item for investors. It has the potential to divide public opinion, which can affect Starlink sales in the U.S. Musk's early involvement in the Trump administration had an impact on Tesla sales, according to Wall Street, academics, and Tesla itself. (Musk noted "blowback" from the Department of Government Efficiency on Tesla's first-quarter earnings conference call in April 2025.)

Investors should also remember that the market forgets, eventually. Tesla stock recovered from its political headwinds. It hit a record high at the end of 2025.

The Starlink situation will also create opportunities for competitors. Shares of European satellite operator Eutelsat jumped 23% on Wednesday. Shares are down almost 9% on Thursday, which still leaves them up about 12% over the past couple of days.

Still, Eutelsat has a market value of about $3.4 billion. It's nowhere near SpaceX's scale. Eutelsat is expected to generate 2026 sales of about $1.4 billion and lose money. SpaceX's Starlink business is expected to generate 2026 sales of about $18 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) of more than $11 billion.

SpaceX stock was down 5.6% at $143.59, while the S&P 500 was off 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.3%.

Ukraine isn't the only factor in the early move. Instead, CoreWeave bond yields are rising -- raising concerns about the massive financing for the AI data center building boom. What's more, Anthropic's third-quarter revenue reportedly rose to $16.8 billion, up 45%. It's an impressive number, but growth decelerated from the second quarter.

CoreWeave stock was down 6.7% in early trading at $61.39. Shares fell more than 15% on Wednesday. Anthropic isn't publicly traded yet.

 

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