The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
2047 ET - Asian currencies consolidate against the dollar ahead of U.S. CPI data due later today. This data "could influence market pricing for the timing of the Fed's next [rate] increase," CBA's Carol Kong says in a research report. "The risk is the core CPI surprises to the upside because of strong consumer demand and higher costs, pushing up market pricing of an October Fed hike and the USD," the economist and currency strategist adds. The U.S. dollar edges 0.1% higher to 158.38 yen, but is 0.1% lower at 1,339.20 won, while the Australian dollar is up 0.1% at US$0.6988, LSEG data show. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2040 ET - JGBs edge lower in price terms in early Tokyo trade amid higher oil prices that typically cause inflation in Japan and could prompt a faster pace of BOJ rate hikes. The focus for today may shift to Japanese Finance Ministry's auction of about 2.5 trillion yen of 5-year sovereign notes. "We expect the auction to draw a certain degree of demand, clearing smoothly," SMBC Nikko Securities' Lisa Mochizuki says in a research report. With the five-year tenor "having cheapened versus surrounding zones, it's looking more attractive on a" relative value basis, the junior analyst adds. The five-year JGB yield is up 0.5 bps at 2.345%. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
2018 ET - The Nikkei Stock Average rises 0.3% to 67951.17 on possible position adjustments as investors are waiting to see U.S. CPI data due later today for clues on the Fed's interest-rate increase trajectory. "Naturally, inflation is expected to heat up given the rise in crude oil prices amid renewed tensions in the Middle East," says Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at StoneX, in commentary. Among the best performers on Japan's benchmark index, Taiyo Yuden rises 4.4%, Fujikura adds 3.5%, and Ibiden gains 3.4%. The dollar is at 158.32 yen, compared with Y158.31 late Tuesday in New York.(ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1943 ET - Japanese stocks may consolidate, tracking Wall Street's mixed performance overnight. Investors are eager to see U.S. CPI data due out later today for clues on the Fed's interest-rate increase trajectory. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal expect the headline year-over-year CPI increase to be 3.6% for September, up from 3.4% in August. Nikkei futures opened 10 points higher at 68050 on the SGX. The dollar is at 158.34 yen, compared with Y158.31 late Tuesday in New York. The Nikkei Stock Average closed 1.8% lower at 67777.52 on Tuesday. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)
1559 ET - Treasury yields have a mild session ahead of U.S. inflation data. Economists surveyed by WSJ expect September CPI to accelerate to 0.6% from August's 0.4% pace, to a 12-month reading of 3.6%, up from 3.4%. Core annual pace is forecast at 2.5%. The report is likely to determine expectations for the next Fed meeting, for which a hold is currently priced in. The 10-year yield falls 0.027 percentage point to 5.216%, while the two-year edges higher by 0.002 point to 4.791%. The 30-year, which recently reached a 24-year high, falls for the third consecutive session, something unseen since early August, sheding 0.036 point to 5.562%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1529 ET - Lean hog futures on the CME settled down 0.6% to 67.975 cents a pound. Today's lower close makes it the fifth day lower out of the past six, according to data from FactSet. Sentiment around hog futures is decidedly negative, Steiner Consulting Group says in a note. "Lean hog futures have been drifting lower since summer and for now there is little conviction that a turnaround in demand is around the corner," the firm says. Cutout prices remain in decline, with the average carcass cutout price falling 21% since hitting a year-high in July. Live cattle futures declined 0.1% to $2.2635 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1450 ET - High government bond yields, combined with resilient economic growth, calls for a fixed-income strategy that reduces duration while leaning into corporate credit, Morgan Stanley's Jim Caron says. He recommends keeping duration shorter than major benchmark indices while increasing exposure to credit, as corporate results remain robust. Caron says high-yield names with credit rating as low as BB offer stable cash flows and low default risks. "What I'm trying to reduce is the interest rate sensitivity and I'm trying to amplify the credit risk component of the portfolio," he says. Caron says tax-exempt municipal bonds are also attractive, supported by strong demand from buy-and-hold investors. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)
1420 ET - Bitcoin whales -- holders of a large amount of bitcoin, usually over 1,000 BTC -- are seen as increasingly buying more bitcoin, now that the market has switched to what analysts with CryptoQuant deem as "an early bull phase." The firm says that so-called whales are now holding 3.03 million BTC, which is the highest since late November 2025. Whales have been seen selling bitcoin from their holdings since September 2025, says CryptoQuant, and the switch back to buying by whales has added to an increasingly positive mood among crypto investors. Bitcoin is virtually flat in trading, at $83,045. Other major cryptocurrencies are mostly lower in afternoon trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1411 ET - Gold futures slip in rangebound trade as the market awaits Wednesday's U.S. consumer price inflation data and its implications for Fed interest-rate policy. "Expectations of an October Fed rate hike remained subdued ahead of U.S. economic data this week, but markets are still pricing in a strong chance of a hike in December," Critical Metals CEO Tony Sage says in a note. "This could keep gold at risk." Softer CPI or PPI numbers this week could help gold rebound, but "stronger-than-expected prints may lift the dollar and yields, pushing the yellow metal lower," he adds. Front-month gold for October delivery settles down 0.3% at $4,152.90 a troy ounce. Silver falls 1.6% to $59.161 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1406 ET - The average transaction price for a new vehicle in the U.S. had a small increase in September, marking the fourth consecutive month of increases and landing just below the all-time high, Kelley Blue Book says. The September average transaction price was $50,562, while the all-time record of $50,614 was set in December, the Cox Automotive brand says. The year-over-year increase in September was below 1%, while the month historically sees gains of 2% to 4%, according to Kelley Blue Book. Erin Keating, Executive Analyst, Cox Automotive, says, "Affordability pressures are pushing more buyers toward lower-priced vehicles and segments, which tempers the industrywide number even as prices for individual vehicles rise." (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)
1355 ET - Even as growth in Western Europe has been broadly resilient, sovereign fiscal stances and debt trajectories are diverging, Fitch Ratings says. Most sovereigns this year have experienced expenditure pressures driven primarily by energy subsidies, higher defense spending, higher interest costs and demographic-related expenditure, according to Fitch. Six euro zone sovereigns, including France, Italy and Spain, are expected to have debt ratios above 90% of GDP by the end of 2028, Fitch says, adding about half will see debt levels below 60%. Debt ratios are expected to rise in 12 euro zone sovereigns in 2026-2028, Fitch says, including in France and Germany. Debt ratios are expected to be stable or fall in nine. Fitch also says government debt-to-GDP dynamics remain the primary ratings driver. (stephen.nakrosis@wsj.com)
1138 ET - There could be more instances in which artificial-intelligence models went rogue that haven't yet been detected and disclosed to the public, Tom Duff Gordon, vice president and head of Europe, Middle East and Africa policy at OpenAI, says in an address to a U.K. parliamentary committee. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese recently said that an OpenAI agent had infiltrated a government-services website in Australia this summer. The company's agents also launched a highly disruptive hack of the company Hugging Face over the summer. "I cannot assure the committee, or you chair... that that is it," Duff Gordon says in response to a question from the committee chair on whether further incidents should be expected.
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