The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.
1550 ET - Oil futures end the session mixed with Brent modestly lower while WTI gains on bullish inventory data and reports that the U.S. could ease some sanctions on tankers that form part of shadow fleets. The EIA reports an 8.6 million-barrel drop in crude stocks for last week, along with a 2.5 million-barrel diesel draw and a 3.5 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks. "Consumers might get some relief at the pump with gasoline prices, but the tight diesel situation keeps pressure on costs and inflation in the broader economy," David Russell of TradeStation says in a note. WTI for November delivery rises 3%, to $97.97 a barrel, and December Brent slips 0.1%, to $105.92. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1514 ET [Dow Jones]--Lean hog futures bounced off of the low established in yesterday's session, rising off of the 66 cent-a-pound level it settled at yesterday. The rebound brings lean hogs closer to a level of 69 cents a pound, which is a level that may shake off the downtrend that hog futures have been trapped in, according to Dave Toth of StoneX. "We're defining [it] as our new short-term parameter," he says in a note. Yesterday's close was the lowest hogs have traded at since January 2024. Lean hog futures settled the day up 0.8% to 68.4 cents a pound, while live cattle futures settled up 0.9% to $2.272 a pound. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1502 ET - U.S. natural gas futures end the session mixed with the front-month gaining while subsequent months lose ground. The EIA reported a 67 Bcf storage injection for last week, which was below the five-year average and smaller than the 75 Bcf estimate of analysts in a WSJ survey. "Following a brief cooler period over the upcoming weekend, temperatures are expected to remain above normal for the eastern half of the U.S. for the rest of October," Blake Owen of Pinebrook Energy Advisors says in a note. "These moderate fall temperatures should lead to lower power demand while also limiting any early season heating demand, creating conditions for fairly robust storage injections over the next three to four weeks." Natural gas for November delivery settles up 1.2% at $3.236/mmBtu.(anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1443 ET - Gold futures snap a three-session losing streak with support from a drop in U.S. yields and a weaker dollar. "While the immediate pressure has eased, I would be reluctant to interpret today's gains as a clear signal that the correction is over," Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com says in a note. Central bank purchases of the metal cushion the downside, but with this week's higher-than-expected U.S. inflation readings, "the Fed will have to hike again and maintain a hawkish bias for a while, especially if oil prices continue to push higher from here on," he adds. Front month gold rises 1.5% to $4,147.70 a troy ounce. Front-month silver gains 2.3% to $56.837 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
This year's corn crop in Brazil, which is split into two major planting and growing seasons, may end up being a record, says Luiz Roque of Hedgepoint Global in a note. Roque forecasts Brazilian corn to total 22.71 million hectares in planted lands, up 1.7% from the prior year. Average yields are also expected to rise, to 6,452 kilograms per hectare versus 6,361 kg per hectare last year. Consumption from the fuel industries are seen driving the more-robust corn planting, says Roque. "The increase in the mandatory blend to E32 supports production growth," Roque explains. CBOT corn fell 0.6% to $4.78 a bushel. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1351 ET - Analysts surveyed by WSJ are largely forecasting soybean export sales for the week ended October 8 to rise from the prior week's 549,400 metric tons, potentially topping out around 1.2 million tons. Higher soybean export sales would come after multiple flash sales reported this week, although those sales would not count for this week's report. But any signs of China buying more U.S. soybeans would be a factor that pushes soybean futures higher. The most-active contract is down 0.9%, while corn slides 0.5% and wheat inches down 0.2%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1342 ET - CBOT soybean futures are lower, with the most-active contract down 0.9% to $12.65 a bushel. The National Oilseed Processors Association says soybeans crushed in the U.S. found a 13-month low in September at 196.3 million bushels. The NOPA figures add to pressure on soybeans, says Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "The NOPA crush report was disappointing as it was below expectations, likely due to the lack of soybean availability due to the slow harvest," says Hoops. But he speculates that next month's report may be a return to form for soybean crushing, with more freshly-harvested soybeans from U.S. farmers hitting the market. Corn falls 0.4% and wheat slides 0.1%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1310 ET - U.S. crude oil futures extend gains, further narrowing the discount to Brent after the EIA reports an 8.6 million barrel stock drawdown for last week amid lower production and imports. Reports that the U.S. is considering easing some tanker sanctions in a bid to bring down freight prices is helping lift U.S. crude, which has farther to travel to European markets. A move to free up so-called shadow tankers would "cool the freight spike that is currently propping up delivered prices," Phil Flynn of the Price Futures Group says in a note. "This is more negative for Brent than for WTI," he says. "The elevated freight rates have been a major reason the Brent premium has stayed so wide." WTI for December delivery is up 2.7% at $96.42 a barrel, and December Brent is little changed at $106.10 a barrel. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1141 ET--Gold futures are higher as yields decline and the dollar pulls back despite strong retail sales and an above-estimate PPI reading for September that followed a hot CPI report. "A sharp selloff in technology and AI-related stocks increased demand for government bonds, pushing U.S. Treasury yields lower despite stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data," Thadeu Dos Santos of Infinox says in a note. ETF and central bank demand "could provide a cushion for the metal if monetary conditions remain restrictive, and amplify any recovery if bond yields continue to decline," he adds. Gold for December delivery is up 1.7% in New York at $4,177.30 a troy ounce and silver gains 2.5% to $57.29 a troy ounce. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1051 ET - U.S. natural gas inventories rose by less than usual last week, narrowing the storage surplus over the five-year average to 45 Bcf from 68 Bcf the week before, according to data from the EIA. Net injections into underground storage were 67 Bcf, putting stocks at 3,567 Bcf. The increase was smaller than the five-year average build for the week of 90 Bcf, and below the 75 Bcf estimate in a Wall Street Journal survey of analysts. The storage deficit against the year-earlier level widened to 143 Bcf from 130 Bcf the previous week. Nymex natural gas futures are up 2.3% at $3.271/mmBtu. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)
1029 ET - Exports of wheat out of Russia are forecast to total 2.5 million metric tons in October, which is down 100,000 tons from the previous month but off 2.9 million tons from this time last year, according to projections from SovEcon. "Black Sea logistics remain the main constraint," says the firm in a note. "No wheat shipments have left Russian Black Sea ports since late September, while risks to commercial shipping remain high." SovEcon adds that the question is whether or not a prolonged stoppage for Black Sea shipments has been fully priced into wheat futures. CBOT wheat is up 1%, while corn is down 0.1% and soybeans drop 0.3%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)
1025 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are up 0.1%. If cattle finishes higher it'll break a three-day skid for the contract, according to data from FactSet. October has been a down month for cattle, settling lower for 8 out of the past 10 trading sessions. "Contracts are struggling to rally through overhead resistance while the momentum on a daily chart has reached overbought for the first time in a month," says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing in a note. Lean hog futures are up 0.2%, after dropping to the lowest since January 2024.
Comments