TSMC results face high bar to calm global AI stock trade jitters

Charlotte Yang / Bloomberg10-15

With strong earnings from global chip majors failing to boost the AI trade, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co faces a high bar to impress investors. (Oct 15): With strong earnings from global chip...

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TSMC shares fell as much as 2.8% in early Thursday trading in Taipei, ahead of its detailed earnings report due after the close.\nTSMC, the world's largest foundry, has already reported a 51% surge in quarterly sales. Still, solid recent results from Samsung Electronics Co and ASML Holding NV have done little calm market anxiety over chip shares.\n\"The bar is very high,\" said Kevin Net, a portfolio manager at Financiere de L Echiquier. \"To get a positive share price reaction, I think we need more than just a beat.\" He's looking for high margins and capital spending from TSMC, as well as signals of strong demand for AI and high-performance computing.\nTSMC touched a record high earlier this month, among the first chip stocks globally to refresh its high after the July rout. It has been outperforming peers in the past few months thanks to its dominant position in outsourced manufacturing of processors needed to power the continued flood of new AI agents from major tech firms like Meta Platforms Inc.\n\n\n\n\nYet it got caught up in the broader pullback in chip shares over the past week amid concerns over AI funding. Against this backdrop, TSMC's results and guidance will be scrutinised to validate the sector's growth narrative.\n\"The key readacross is whether TSMC turns more bullish on the duration and scale of AI demand,\" said James Ooi, market strategist at Tiger Brokers. A bump in management's AI accelerator revenue forecast or detail on the size of the gap in supply and demand for advanced chipmaking would be welcomed, he said. \nConsensus estimates have been climbing for the Taiwanese foundry's 2027 capital spending, which is seen as a key metric for its share price. Goldman Sachs Group Inc now targets US$85 billion and UBS Group AG sees US$90 billion, compared with the US$75 billion average of firms polled by Bloomberg. \n\"Capex remains the utmost focus, as the company will likely continue to publicly state it remains committed to fulfilling backlogged customer demand,\" JPMorgan Chase & Co's sales desk wrote in a note to clients this week.\nAnother critical test is how well TSMC can protect its margins as it ramps up spending. Analysts estimate its gross margin at 66.5% for the three months through September, near the top of the company's guidance range even if down slightly from the record level posted for the previous quarter. \n\"We are seeing a very long lasting cycle compared to historical standard, which is positive,\" said Christophe Leroy, co-CIO and head of investment services at CBH Bank. \"But at some point, we will see a cyclicality in the margin and you have to take into consideration what justify the current valuation.\" \nInvestors will also closely parse TSMC's commentary for indications of the impact from power grid constraints, regulatory hurdles or localised resistance to data centre construction.\n\"The market needs the whole AI ecosystem to work so if TSMC can demonstrate not only the demand is strong, but also the execution is also as planned,\" said Xiadong Bao, a fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management. For the AI capex narrative to continue, TSMC should continue to deliver on agentic AI promise, get strong commitments from hyperscalers and better manage bottlenecks, he added. \nUploaded by Evelyn Chan","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":false,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"isLaohu8Offline":false,"tenantId":"TBGLOBAL","deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.52.0","shortVersion":"4.52.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2675538233","isCrawlerRequest":true}